{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9f2722e-6ca0-41ea-8c4e-b652fe0baf4b", "symbol": "CURAA", "name": "CURA TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.295, "architecture_energy": 65.969, "architecture_maturity": 43.62, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.75, "rotation_up": 19.55, "upward_expansion": 13.62, "deceleration": 41.65, "rotation_down": 67.04, "downward_expansion": 91.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.542667, 75.973091, 81.706714, 86.303204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 72.919998, "trend_reference": 89.678667, "distance_from_trend": -0.186875, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 76.942436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.052279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.455494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.184978, "excess_performance": -0.141269, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.186875, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166901, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.052279, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322436, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.434555, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065826, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.184978, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.310637, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2364, "relative_activity": 0.694528, "balance": 0.310637, "dry_up": 0.957694, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111313, "annualized_volatility": 0.45259, "from_high_reference": -0.78362, "from_low_reference": 0.138308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 89.678667, "fair_value_reference": 76.942436, "structural_low": 64.059998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.063736, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.072574, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.25184, "worst_return": -0.277531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.035406, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.159155, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 4.162208, "worst_return": -0.29189, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 3.145855, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 3.159855, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 6.558528, "worst_return": -0.266818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 2.814381, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 2.844133, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 2.814381, "worst_return": 2.814381, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 2.160286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.345149, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009091, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.29177, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.398324, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012438, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095911, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.212272, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 32.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.58595, "energy": 62.055228, "activity_lines": [ 74.402001, 77.183274, 83.381524, 87.45914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.919998, "volume": 2364, "typical_volume": 3403.75, "trend": 89.678667, "fair_value": 76.942436, "relative_strength": -43.455494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.295382, "energy": 65.969416, "activity_lines": [ 73.542667, 75.973091, 81.706714, 86.303204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }