{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da05ef37-d1f0-454c-b279-ab2e5509e81e", "symbol": "PRMB", "name": "Primo Brands Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.864, "architecture_energy": 19.27, "architecture_maturity": 57.476, "architecture_confidence": 88.368, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.55, "rotation_up": 26.35, "upward_expansion": 57.0, "deceleration": 87.91, "rotation_down": 28.61, "downward_expansion": 18.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.358667, 23.786182, 23.432349, 22.626268 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.57, "trend_reference": 21.556152, "distance_from_trend": 0.093423, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.91925, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.054145, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.376056, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.213544, "excess_performance": 0.087919, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093423, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.14176, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.054145, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024984, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013761, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092941, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.213544, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.421667, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40786572, "relative_activity": 2.226945, "balance": 2.421667, "dry_up": 1.007685, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080587, "annualized_volatility": 0.473532, "from_high_reference": -0.100807, "from_low_reference": 0.669621 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.556152, "fair_value_reference": 24.91925, "structural_low": 17.732563, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028594, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038326, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 27.730832, "volume": 15321831, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 28.138211, "volume": 10330572, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 24.82, "volume": 10897354, "typical_volume": 19074317.85, "trend": 20.932253, "fair_value": 24.98502, "relative_strength": 8.737198, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.187726, "energy": 48.370489, "activity_lines": [ 24.619333, 24.380006, 23.200203, 22.269311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.7, "volume": 10869408, "typical_volume": 18235562.95, "trend": 21.141106, "fair_value": 24.959345, "relative_strength": 0.942808, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.256471, "energy": 30.866893, "activity_lines": [ 23.982667, 24.120927, 23.255674, 22.383359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.7, "volume": 11269794, "typical_volume": 17776267.05, "trend": 21.363812, "fair_value": 24.934241, "relative_strength": 0.655102, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.514435, "energy": 20.049916, "activity_lines": [ 23.450667, 23.868389, 23.307458, 22.483933 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.57, "volume": 40786572, "typical_volume": 18315031.75, "trend": 21.556152, "fair_value": 24.91925, "relative_strength": 1.376056, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.863892, "energy": 19.270138, "activity_lines": [ 23.358667, 23.786182, 23.432349, 22.626268 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }