{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da07a3f2-8384-452a-a887-ef0fdb7022ab", "symbol": "SQU", "name": "Block, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.545, "architecture_energy": 53.621, "architecture_maturity": 46.393, "architecture_confidence": 72.556, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.87, "rotation_up": 61.0, "upward_expansion": 84.1, "deceleration": 60.74, "rotation_down": 21.44, "downward_expansion": 8.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.036669, 68.048183, 65.302001, 62.416968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 68.550003, "trend_reference": 58.776334, "distance_from_trend": 0.166286, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.325481, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117806, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.411457, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.446508, "excess_performance": 0.272261, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.166286, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068991, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117806, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076587, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064115, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012548, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.446508, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.576413, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1218, "relative_activity": 2.472594, "balance": 0.576413, "dry_up": 1.862058, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062447, "annualized_volatility": 0.481684, "from_high_reference": -0.074899, "from_low_reference": 0.654798 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.776334, "fair_value_reference": 61.325481, "structural_low": 41.424999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.013034, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.04265, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.070523, "worst_return": -0.11364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.070425, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.121232, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.129348, "worst_return": -0.247657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.257368, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.446833, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.049814, "worst_return": -0.511279, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-06-26", "close": 67.25, "volume": 995, "typical_volume": 677.95, "trend": 56.041667, "fair_value": 61.124391, "relative_strength": -7.714864, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.273156, "energy": 52.57344, "activity_lines": [ 63.76, 62.655455, 59.943, 57.913936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 68.900002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 602.15, "trend": 56.575, "fair_value": 61.172981, "relative_strength": -7.334659, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.445797, "energy": 78.575675, "activity_lines": [ 65.640001, 63.914546, 61.086096, 58.743506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 67.650002, "volume": 3126, "typical_volume": 649.95, "trend": 57.039, "fair_value": 61.174968, "relative_strength": -7.479012, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.968328, "energy": 80.202784, "activity_lines": [ 66.883335, 64.79091, 61.97962, 59.458022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 69.650002, "volume": 597, "typical_volume": 584.05, "trend": 57.502, "fair_value": 61.182404, "relative_strength": -2.482902, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.041597, "energy": 85.694902, "activity_lines": [ 68.246668, 65.89091, 62.957048, 60.271635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 68.75, "volume": 688, "typical_volume": 445.5, "trend": 57.975, "fair_value": 61.165737, "relative_strength": -4.393008, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.700401, "energy": 79.088323, "activity_lines": [ 68.690001, 66.714546, 63.766762, 60.997312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.900002, "volume": 1166, "typical_volume": 467.8, "trend": 58.470334, "fair_value": 61.242917, "relative_strength": -2.240665, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.558237, "energy": 64.990041, "activity_lines": [ 69.176668, 67.605456, 64.632191, 61.766667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.550003, "volume": 1218, "typical_volume": 492.6, "trend": 58.776334, "fair_value": 61.325481, "relative_strength": -6.411457, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.544845, "energy": 53.621326, "activity_lines": [ 69.036669, 68.048183, 65.302001, 62.416968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }