{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da0a315c-dda3-478d-97e1-a074d3e4fcbf", "symbol": "2458", "name": "ELAN Microelectronics Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.878, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.103, "architecture_energy": 32.293, "architecture_maturity": 38.84, "architecture_confidence": 60.928, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.07, "rotation_up": 14.13, "upward_expansion": 20.75, "deceleration": 69.34, "rotation_down": 65.82, "downward_expansion": 39.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 142.024072, 152.104071, 155.444998, 150.918641 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 140.5, "trend_reference": 142.891146, "distance_from_trend": -0.016734, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 132.671405, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059007, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.135815, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.220679, "excess_performance": -0.125053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016734, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100114, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059007, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215516, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087801, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.220679, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.582376, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13822811, "relative_activity": 0.699442, "balance": 1.582376, "dry_up": 0.83845, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122615, "annualized_volatility": 0.50366, "from_high_reference": -0.283163, "from_low_reference": 0.278049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 142.891146, "fair_value_reference": 132.671405, "structural_low": 114.132629, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.028708, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.038197, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.099668, "worst_return": -0.051485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.063634, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025356, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064356, "worst_return": 0.062912, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.176379, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.055718, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.411709, "worst_return": -0.05895, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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30.572801, "energy": 17.846671, "activity_lines": [ 160.885328, 164.754423, 159.023631, 151.276311 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 137.210419, "volume": 24458296, "typical_volume": 20338137.1, "trend": 141.113764, "fair_value": 132.213562, "relative_strength": -23.431653, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.128315, "energy": 18.389972, "activity_lines": [ 150.865957, 159.750087, 157.670408, 151.075152 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 140.119476, "volume": 14016642, "typical_volume": 19744524.7, "trend": 141.931631, "fair_value": 132.445641, "relative_strength": -23.908654, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.651624, "energy": 21.249005, "activity_lines": [ 144.935576, 155.72539, 156.567248, 151.011005 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 140.5, "volume": 13822811, "typical_volume": 19762638.75, "trend": 142.891146, "fair_value": 132.671405, "relative_strength": -22.135815, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.103088, "energy": 32.292973, "activity_lines": [ 142.024072, 152.104071, 155.444998, 150.918641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }