{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da0c19aa-b947-4db4-8e29-34573de3b3b7", "symbol": "300625", "name": "Guangdong PAK Corporation Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.363, "architecture_energy": 56.701, "architecture_maturity": 64.842, "architecture_confidence": 94.349, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 24.12, "upward_expansion": 9.73, "deceleration": 60.44, "rotation_down": 56.4, "downward_expansion": 83.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.028, 9.143479, 9.850352, 10.426935 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.33, "trend_reference": 11.175304, "distance_from_trend": -0.165123, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.503217, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.188923, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.579147, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.277864, "excess_performance": -0.285264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165123, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0787, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.188923, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206129, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225791, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020807, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.277864, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.437512, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8747550, "relative_activity": 0.896388, "balance": 0.437512, "dry_up": 0.954109, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084072, "annualized_volatility": 0.273446, "from_high_reference": -0.29691, "from_low_reference": 0.132282 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.175304, "fair_value_reference": 11.503217, "structural_low": 8.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.002227, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004896, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.225026, "worst_return": -0.146776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.068862, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.030203, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.36286, "worst_return": -0.26789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055802, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031138, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.272145, "worst_return": -0.238698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 11.562637, "fair_value": 11.568133, "relative_strength": -31.260697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.850253, "energy": 90.183195, "activity_lines": [ 9.310667, 9.854913, 10.567382, 11.060111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.95, "volume": 9062774, "typical_volume": 10744533.1, "trend": 11.470637, "fair_value": 11.551142, "relative_strength": -24.862521, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.120039, "energy": 87.228824, "activity_lines": [ 9.145333, 9.59619, 10.358006, 10.891553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.41, "volume": 11186734, "typical_volume": 10429269.95, "trend": 11.351637, "fair_value": 11.532355, "relative_strength": -28.970555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.911404, "energy": 78.766451, "activity_lines": [ 8.867333, 9.291807, 10.116438, 10.694093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.14, "volume": 8246248, "typical_volume": 10116905.7, "trend": 11.259304, "fair_value": 11.516523, "relative_strength": -20.926752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.318125, "energy": 63.273081, "activity_lines": [ 8.912, 9.176103, 9.965109, 10.551407 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.33, "volume": 8747550, "typical_volume": 9758661.7, "trend": 11.175304, "fair_value": 11.503217, "relative_strength": -22.579147, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.362851, "energy": 56.701167, "activity_lines": [ 9.028, 9.143479, 9.850352, 10.426935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }