{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da129021-bde2-4510-9c6f-6136d92a1208", "symbol": "POMO4", "name": "Marcopolo S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -91.341, "architecture_energy": 93.127, "architecture_maturity": 27.992, "architecture_confidence": 78.686, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.54, "rotation_up": 8.36, "upward_expansion": 20.92, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 85.27, "downward_expansion": 96.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.054667, 5.362, 5.687414, 5.850736 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.52, "trend_reference": 6.025841, "distance_from_trend": -0.249897, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.500877, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.178313, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.777153, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.279029, "excess_performance": -0.22198, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.249897, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011105, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.178313, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.399612, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307772, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159422, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.279029, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.25053, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132578400, "relative_activity": 3.434734, "balance": 0.25053, "dry_up": 1.755261, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087645, "annualized_volatility": 0.38911, "from_high_reference": -0.431515, "from_low_reference": 0.006682 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.025841, "fair_value_reference": 5.500877, "structural_low": 4.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.054261, "positive_rate": 0.9, "directional_follow_through": 0.1, "median_excess_return": -0.018386, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.209352, "worst_return": -0.082517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.071681, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.010522, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.423018, "worst_return": -0.07353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.199571, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.092906, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.099806, "worst_return": -0.015734, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166078, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04218, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071428, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029921, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.143895, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159445, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"fair_value": 5.452473, "relative_strength": -17.319646, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.977122, "energy": 32.523411, "activity_lines": [ 5.885333, 5.899091, 6.060809, 6.11443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.24, "volume": 60560900, "typical_volume": 39197145.0, "trend": 6.110952, "fair_value": 5.466494, "relative_strength": -22.976241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.697062, "energy": 65.215932, "activity_lines": [ 5.667333, 5.768182, 5.974577, 6.057754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.23, "volume": 42537300, "typical_volume": 37591760.0, "trend": 6.087168, "fair_value": 5.481141, "relative_strength": -22.524885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.820573, "energy": 76.227423, "activity_lines": [ 5.487333, 5.657273, 5.894786, 6.000918 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.31, "volume": 35331000, "typical_volume": 35883260.0, "trend": 6.070658, "fair_value": 5.493977, "relative_strength": -22.200686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.234435, "energy": 78.644468, "activity_lines": [ 5.384667, 5.575818, 5.827517, 5.950778 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.52, "volume": 132578400, "typical_volume": 38599325.0, "trend": 6.025841, "fair_value": 5.500877, "relative_strength": -30.777153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.340544, "energy": 93.127211, "activity_lines": [ 5.054667, 5.362, 5.687414, 5.850736 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }