{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da176e28-94f3-432c-b216-5cd89737d421", "symbol": "ETE", "name": "Eastern Technical Engineering Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.206, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.286, "architecture_energy": 10.562, "architecture_maturity": 42.046, "architecture_confidence": 61.831, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.36, "rotation_up": 27.28, "upward_expansion": 7.6, "deceleration": 53.97, "rotation_down": 36.21, "downward_expansion": 44.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.572667, 0.573636, 0.577762, 0.581183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.58, "trend_reference": 0.579667, "distance_from_trend": 0.000575, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.868247, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.331988, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.410841, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.035714, "excess_performance": -0.156611, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000575, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024678, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.331988, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026046, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194108, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04716, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035714, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.97122, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 93700, "relative_activity": 0.113968, "balance": 0.97122, "dry_up": 0.976543, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086207, "annualized_volatility": 0.282171, "from_high_reference": -0.292683, "from_low_reference": 0.288889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.579667, "fair_value_reference": 0.868247, "structural_low": 0.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.043269, "positive_rate": 0.157895, "directional_follow_through": 0.157895, "median_excess_return": -0.050792, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.257143, "worst_return": -0.140187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.119872, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.149387, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.148514, "worst_return": -0.254386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.174295, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.197806, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.238119, "worst_return": -0.403509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.222617, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.152969, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.156931, "worst_return": -0.368421, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044943, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.257143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044117, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.068959, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018519, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.152174, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", 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0.575273, 0.581095, 0.58243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.58, "volume": 2710100, "typical_volume": 861685.0, "trend": 0.580333, "fair_value": 0.876012, "relative_strength": -22.303264, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.621867, "energy": 8.065029, "activity_lines": [ 0.574667, 0.575818, 0.580524, 0.582473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.56, "volume": 113800, "typical_volume": 843610.0, "trend": 0.579667, "fair_value": 0.872097, "relative_strength": -23.389349, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.681516, "energy": 17.267062, "activity_lines": [ 0.57, 0.572364, 0.578143, 0.581161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.58, "volume": 93700, "typical_volume": 822160.0, "trend": 0.579667, "fair_value": 0.868247, "relative_strength": -19.410841, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.286066, "energy": 10.562281, "activity_lines": [ 0.572667, 0.573636, 0.577762, 0.581183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }