{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da1ebdeb-f1bc-4a65-9e2c-f93e4805a808", "symbol": "300823", "name": "TJK Intelligent Equipment Manufacturing (Tianjin) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.688, "architecture_energy": 66.299, "architecture_maturity": 17.809, "architecture_confidence": 89.593, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.2, "rotation_up": 12.03, "upward_expansion": 14.19, "deceleration": 39.95, "rotation_down": 65.9, "downward_expansion": 85.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.704, 14.14, 15.318561, 15.819618 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.35, "trend_reference": 16.355282, "distance_from_trend": -0.122608, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.545822, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.777599, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.153891, "excess_performance": -0.161291, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122608, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025908, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.076922, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.306438, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137776, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132994, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.153891, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.236332, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15205879, "relative_activity": 0.963442, "balance": 0.236332, "dry_up": 1.070126, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103663, "annualized_volatility": 0.427009, "from_high_reference": -0.270821, "from_low_reference": 0.190871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.355282, "fair_value_reference": 15.545822, "structural_low": 12.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.027482, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.004591, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.190244, "worst_return": -0.112445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043563, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.018991, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.334919, "worst_return": -0.10015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.08689, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.033161, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.226831, "worst_return": -0.212364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060258, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031354, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115865, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132944, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.58, "volume": 14921021, "typical_volume": 14901244.35, "trend": 16.593616, "fair_value": 15.697154, "relative_strength": -19.14361, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.266389, "energy": 70.981668, "activity_lines": [ 14.945333, 15.750207, 16.399389, 16.589476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.47, "volume": 14957520, "typical_volume": 15200562.35, "trend": 16.546616, "fair_value": 15.65879, "relative_strength": -17.442941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.533645, "energy": 76.495149, "activity_lines": [ 14.403333, 15.178038, 16.091968, 16.387953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.67, "volume": 22632115, "typical_volume": 15540940.55, "trend": 16.454949, "fair_value": 15.615055, "relative_strength": -22.143849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.077131, "energy": 76.323809, "activity_lines": [ 13.742, 14.568659, 15.729689, 16.137848 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.57, "volume": 14763125, "typical_volume": 15659008.8, "trend": 16.397616, "fair_value": 15.575996, "relative_strength": -14.740398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.06824, "energy": 74.788345, "activity_lines": [ 13.567333, 14.235672, 15.477459, 15.951723 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.35, "volume": 15205879, "typical_volume": 15782866.75, "trend": 16.355282, "fair_value": 15.545822, "relative_strength": -13.777599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.688045, "energy": 66.299309, "activity_lines": [ 13.704, 14.14, 15.318561, 15.819618 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }