{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da2c1088-b639-489f-99df-01cb1b832c65", "symbol": "Y3D", "name": "mDR Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.806, "architecture_energy": 83.984, "architecture_maturity": 67.755, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 25.8, "upward_expansion": 21.3, "deceleration": 37.33, "rotation_down": 58.53, "downward_expansion": 94.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.036867, 0.038109, 0.040848, 0.044692 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.037, "trend_reference": 0.050483, "distance_from_trend": -0.267084, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.050817, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.271892, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.759786, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.447761, "excess_performance": -0.602596, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.267084, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106753, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.271892, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122113, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.457598, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148806, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.447761, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.484386, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4313900, "relative_activity": 0.191252, "balance": 0.484386, "dry_up": 0.374308, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081081, "annualized_volatility": 0.479163, "from_high_reference": -0.54321, "from_low_reference": 0.027778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.050483, "fair_value_reference": 0.050817, "structural_low": 0.036, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.007817, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021703, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 1.6875, "worst_return": -0.222226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.076923, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.088457, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 1.588025, "worst_return": -0.366667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.033342, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.140469, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.108761, "worst_return": -0.415385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008859, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023657, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.606708, "worst_return": -0.343762, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075772, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.35938, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.21427, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02243, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.239437, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.192308, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.55143, "energy": 88.536973, "activity_lines": [ 0.037267, 0.039291, 0.042505, 0.0466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.037, "volume": 6495000, "typical_volume": 22431218.05, "trend": 0.051417, "fair_value": 0.050987, "relative_strength": -46.136349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.584002, "energy": 86.59534, "activity_lines": [ 0.037, 0.038673, 0.041617, 0.045623 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.037, "volume": 4313900, "typical_volume": 22556118.05, "trend": 0.050483, "fair_value": 0.050817, "relative_strength": -45.759786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.805609, "energy": 83.983512, "activity_lines": [ 0.036867, 0.038109, 0.040848, 0.044692 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }