{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da38d0ca-51b6-4b0d-91ef-4299b8b4b713", "symbol": "1865", "name": "Pengo Holdings Group Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 69.928, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -41.273, "architecture_energy": 60.216, "architecture_maturity": 13.676, "architecture_confidence": 59.649, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.7, "rotation_up": 16.71, "upward_expansion": 20.96, "deceleration": 43.3, "rotation_down": 70.7, "downward_expansion": 62.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.411, 0.441545, 0.460619, 0.468763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.395, "trend_reference": 0.4625, "distance_from_trend": -0.145946, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.382735, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.032046, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.845772, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.091954, "excess_performance": -0.076663, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145946, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193446, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.032046, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.428211, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038458, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200055, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091954, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.337512, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22280000, "relative_activity": 1.118894, "balance": 0.337512, "dry_up": 1.320505, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142162, "annualized_volatility": 0.745469, "from_high_reference": -0.392308, "from_low_reference": 0.755556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.4625, "fair_value_reference": 0.382735, "structural_low": 0.36, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.05972, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.040816, "worst_return": -0.064151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.020408, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.055635, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.098039, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.132075, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.063644, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.156863, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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45.189755, "energy": 24.741639, "activity_lines": [ 0.498, 0.494091, 0.490429, 0.475204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.47, "volume": 17144800, "typical_volume": 30548265.9, "trend": 0.4399, "fair_value": 0.470608, "relative_strength": 32.728608, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.695107, "energy": 15.439095, "activity_lines": [ 0.482667, 0.492364, 0.488214, 0.477609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.47, "volume": 34855200, "typical_volume": 27867065.9, "trend": 0.447267, "fair_value": 0.448846, "relative_strength": 26.67354, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.48908, "energy": 17.413004, "activity_lines": [ 0.474, 0.490727, 0.485786, 0.479551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4, "volume": 22968000, "typical_volume": 24181895.9, "trend": 0.452433, "fair_value": 0.426928, "relative_strength": 8.002781, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.73814, "energy": 28.2507, "activity_lines": [ 0.448, 0.475182, 0.476833, 0.476501 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 0.395, "volume": 25075086, "typical_volume": 21101034.3, "trend": 0.4575, "fair_value": 0.404685, "relative_strength": 8.26567, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.348441, "energy": 49.779209, "activity_lines": [ 0.427, 0.458182, 0.46831, 0.472796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 0.395, "volume": 22280000, "typical_volume": 19912514.3, "trend": 0.4625, "fair_value": 0.382735, "relative_strength": 3.845772, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.273366, "energy": 60.216081, "activity_lines": [ 0.411, 0.441545, 0.460619, 0.468763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }