{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da3b1861-2669-4f25-97ad-aa6fec7bb700", "symbol": "SIXP", "name": "ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY 6 MONTH BUFFER10 MAR/SEP ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.674, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.632, "architecture_energy": 75.395, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.483, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.61, "rotation_up": 64.31, "upward_expansion": 90.34, "deceleration": 49.77, "rotation_down": 25.76, "downward_expansion": 14.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.056947, 33.910709, 33.641237, 33.230441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 34.31, "trend_reference": 32.733103, "distance_from_trend": 0.048174, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.153189, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176887, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.297886, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.075067, "excess_performance": -0.050558, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048174, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.176887, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014946, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042979, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003435, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075067, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.495644, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1656, "relative_activity": 0.098281, "balance": 7.495644, "dry_up": 0.274501, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010144, "annualized_volatility": 0.064135, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.149795 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.733103, "fair_value_reference": 29.153189, "structural_low": 30.700455, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.009351, "positive_rate": 0.916667, "directional_follow_through": 0.916667, "median_excess_return": -0.003717, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.052412, "worst_return": -0.026187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.034135, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.028193, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.055336, "worst_return": 0.01016, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.044642, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.000117, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.044642, "worst_return": 0.044642, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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33.746967, 33.642991, 33.21938, 32.85021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.8448, "volume": 983, "typical_volume": 31788.55, "trend": 32.495943, "fair_value": 29.035426, "relative_strength": -2.068372, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.420648, "energy": 82.125264, "activity_lines": [ 33.80074, 33.6956, 33.324074, 32.942363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.8152, "volume": 15504, "typical_volume": 24880.35, "trend": 32.56798, "fair_value": 29.073361, "relative_strength": -1.515697, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.951634, "energy": 79.138044, "activity_lines": [ 33.822527, 33.732467, 33.417366, 33.027476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.0547, "volume": 358, "typical_volume": 17652.6, "trend": 32.65077, "fair_value": 29.112584, "relative_strength": -1.799563, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.326706, "energy": 78.298569, "activity_lines": [ 33.915067, 33.80374, 33.52333, 33.123394 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.31, "volume": 1656, "typical_volume": 16849.65, "trend": 32.733103, "fair_value": 29.153189, "relative_strength": -4.297886, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.63167, "energy": 75.395001, "activity_lines": [ 34.056947, 33.910709, 33.641237, 33.230441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }