{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da3b5997-1676-4074-b9a3-74dbe732ed33", "symbol": "KKO", "name": "Kinetiko Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.184, "architecture_energy": 37.228, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.177, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.15, "rotation_up": 27.74, "upward_expansion": 18.92, "deceleration": 46.84, "rotation_down": 29.08, "downward_expansion": 61.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.037667, 0.036527, 0.039981, 0.043477 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.039, "trend_reference": 0.04915, "distance_from_trend": -0.206511, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.070819, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.449302, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.732044, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.370968, "excess_performance": -0.434673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.206511, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164353, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.449302, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157525, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.37732, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190114, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.370968, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.21621, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3705893, "relative_activity": 3.19919, "balance": 0.21621, "dry_up": 1.662776, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115385, "annualized_volatility": 0.592158, "from_high_reference": -0.645455, "from_low_reference": 0.258065 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.04915, "fair_value_reference": 0.070819, "structural_low": 0.031, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.472222, "median_excess_return": 0.000968, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.724138, "worst_return": -0.288462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.014706, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.01099, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.47619, "worst_return": -0.2125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.037975, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.014696, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.444444, "worst_return": -0.295751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081081, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", 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-43.365763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.409825, "energy": 70.154239, "activity_lines": [ 0.034667, 0.036427, 0.041993, 0.046068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.035, "volume": 856209, "typical_volume": 899427.4, "trend": 0.05135, "fair_value": 0.071486, "relative_strength": -42.418571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.997504, "energy": 61.594418, "activity_lines": [ 0.034867, 0.035673, 0.040962, 0.044946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.04, "volume": 2403416, "typical_volume": 1001287.6, "trend": 0.050417, "fair_value": 0.071165, "relative_strength": -34.996097, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.829238, "energy": 49.57668, "activity_lines": [ 0.036733, 0.036136, 0.040498, 0.044214 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.039, "volume": 3705893, "typical_volume": 1158384.75, "trend": 0.04915, "fair_value": 0.070819, "relative_strength": -37.732044, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.184422, "energy": 37.227634, "activity_lines": [ 0.037667, 0.036527, 0.039981, 0.043477 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }