{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da40d77f-6510-414c-95bf-1ce310730a23", "symbol": "603090", "name": "Wuxi Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Manufacturing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.929, "architecture_energy": 83.314, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.872, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.1, "rotation_up": 9.48, "upward_expansion": 20.56, "deceleration": 37.25, "rotation_down": 77.89, "downward_expansion": 96.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.939332, 43.897818, 51.985601, 56.636092 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.029999, "trend_reference": 62.63123, "distance_from_trend": -0.360862, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.827526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257716, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.19963, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.47133, "excess_performance": -0.428126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.360862, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00308, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257716, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.057296, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.271996, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.561767, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.47133, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.511655, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14850900, "relative_activity": 0.726045, "balance": 0.511655, "dry_up": 0.899233, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.216788, "annualized_volatility": 0.775239, "from_high_reference": -0.593819, "from_low_reference": 0.371154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.63123, "fair_value_reference": 31.827526, "structural_low": 32.450001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.008887, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.020051, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.47754, "worst_return": -0.174639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033007, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.070492, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.543025, "worst_return": -0.046064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.038723, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.108091, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.33176, "worst_return": 0.019463, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 31.609736, "relative_strength": -28.967999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.159599, "energy": 86.850721, "activity_lines": [ 43.027333, 49.224182, 56.046673, 59.954127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.599998, "volume": 17253300, "typical_volume": 20325067.4, "trend": 63.136684, "fair_value": 31.701511, "relative_strength": -33.280517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.470481, "energy": 89.171442, "activity_lines": [ 39.702666, 45.817999, 53.73007, 58.126846 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.029999, "volume": 14850900, "typical_volume": 20454516.4, "trend": 62.63123, "fair_value": 31.827526, "relative_strength": -27.19963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.928681, "energy": 83.314224, "activity_lines": [ 38.939332, 43.897818, 51.985601, 56.636092 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }