{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da412988-2824-4d15-ad9f-f59ecfa47d47", "symbol": "DEO", "name": "Diageo PLC ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 58.156, "architecture_energy": 66.609, "architecture_maturity": 33.647, "architecture_confidence": 60.692, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.01, "rotation_up": 71.44, "upward_expansion": 60.67, "deceleration": 23.87, "rotation_down": 17.19, "downward_expansion": 21.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.884, 86.019273, 84.018554, 83.331455 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 96.35, "trend_reference": 84.105182, "distance_from_trend": 0.145589, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 111.284431, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.134201, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.213342, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.004246, "excess_performance": -0.121379, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.145589, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018293, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.134201, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147879, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032133, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165422, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004246, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.062038, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10848532, "relative_activity": 1.663678, "balance": 1.062038, "dry_up": 0.995455, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054069, "annualized_volatility": 0.344813, "from_high_reference": -0.14267, "from_low_reference": 0.342876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.105182, "fair_value_reference": 111.284431, "structural_low": 71.748984, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.016499, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.01273, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.047959, "worst_return": -0.103895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.051879, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.081839, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.000641, "worst_return": -0.182173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.156532, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.18217, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.046317, "worst_return": -0.193543, 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.210257, "energy": 12.61124, "activity_lines": [ 82.134, 82.177636, 81.178049, 82.291645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 84.0, "volume": 4884714, "typical_volume": 7047711.8, "trend": 83.832398, "fair_value": 112.599139, "relative_strength": -13.886664, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.128629, "energy": 7.953527, "activity_lines": [ 82.804667, 82.451273, 81.521365, 82.293216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 83.08, "volume": 4230360, "typical_volume": 6672866.0, "trend": 83.752238, "fair_value": 112.099421, "relative_strength": -13.674849, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.614606, "energy": 9.092747, "activity_lines": [ 83.021333, 82.563091, 81.799129, 82.244674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 88.06, "volume": 6001105, "typical_volume": 6395869.55, "trend": 83.812661, "fair_value": 111.67244, "relative_strength": -9.020546, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.162865, "energy": 33.236558, "activity_lines": [ 84.722667, 83.555091, 82.541314, 82.522594 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 96.35, "volume": 10848532, "typical_volume": 6520811.9, "trend": 84.105182, "fair_value": 111.284431, "relative_strength": -3.213342, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 58.156418, "energy": 66.608788, "activity_lines": [ 88.884, 86.019273, 84.018554, 83.331455 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }