{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da439964-7044-4e5e-9a97-2a06854d7d3d", "symbol": "MANAKCOAT", "name": "Manaksia Coated Metals & Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.966, "architecture_energy": 36.568, "architecture_maturity": 8.462, "architecture_confidence": 52.38, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.14, "rotation_up": 58.0, "upward_expansion": 52.11, "deceleration": 32.14, "rotation_down": 21.03, "downward_expansion": 12.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 120.778, 119.137455, 113.834048, 112.768 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 114.510002, "trend_reference": 113.852, "distance_from_trend": 0.005779, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 86.338268, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326295, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.058049, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.057919, "excess_performance": -0.014209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005779, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055834, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.326295, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013367, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083146, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057919, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.773406, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1262376, "relative_activity": 0.818506, "balance": 1.773406, "dry_up": 2.140839, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085495, "annualized_volatility": 0.397676, "from_high_reference": -0.373646, "from_low_reference": 0.215605 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 113.852, "fair_value_reference": 86.338268, "structural_low": 94.199997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.121622, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.13448, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121622, "worst_return": 0.121622, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.767568, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.772083, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.767568, "worst_return": 1.767568, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.445946, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.493, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.445946, "worst_return": 0.445946, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.235143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.150403, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.241983, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060838, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.175138, 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126.019997, "volume": 2298274, "typical_volume": 1653012.85, "trend": 114.705333, "fair_value": 85.051289, "relative_strength": 3.509066, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.318279, "energy": 58.897033, "activity_lines": [ 123.761999, 118.107999, 112.391523, 112.416172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 119.970001, "volume": 2234039, "typical_volume": 1542391.8, "trend": 114.321333, "fair_value": 85.713238, "relative_strength": -3.439307, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.014181, "energy": 57.528208, "activity_lines": [ 123.691333, 119.294181, 113.392381, 112.755828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 114.510002, "volume": 1262376, "typical_volume": 1542293.45, "trend": 113.852, "fair_value": 86.338268, "relative_strength": -8.058049, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.966031, "energy": 36.567678, "activity_lines": [ 120.778, 119.137455, 113.834048, 112.768 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }