{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da48b3d1-3118-4d82-98a9-14cf2bbdf6a6", "symbol": "UNB", "name": "Union Bankshares Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 76.247, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.304, "architecture_energy": 5.407, "architecture_maturity": 12.863, "architecture_confidence": 46.849, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.67, "rotation_up": 23.32, "upward_expansion": 37.12, "deceleration": 69.25, "rotation_down": 40.31, "downward_expansion": 16.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.844492, 24.097144, 24.030636, 23.94627 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 23.55, "trend_reference": 23.894094, "distance_from_trend": -0.014401, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.862286, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.052782, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.590891, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.038247, "excess_performance": -0.225701, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014401, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019261, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.052782, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040354, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135909, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048786, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038247, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.434736, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30611, "relative_activity": 0.442815, "balance": 1.434736, "dry_up": 0.566108, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061696, "annualized_volatility": 0.212132, "from_high_reference": -0.110747, "from_low_reference": 0.173631 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.894094, "fair_value_reference": 24.862286, "structural_low": 22.051692, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.001821, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": 0.016728, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.221919, "worst_return": -0.130088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.015593, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.00281, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.447847, "worst_return": -0.180158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029709, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.130376, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.357304, 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23.909491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.018682, "volume": 25390, "typical_volume": 68598.55, "trend": 23.854108, "fair_value": 24.800628, "relative_strength": -6.270846, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.396964, "energy": 51.54466, "activity_lines": [ 24.746249, 24.295235, 24.103654, 23.988777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.42769, "volume": 48167, "typical_volume": 69010.15, "trend": 23.906539, "fair_value": 24.828099, "relative_strength": -6.434935, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.437488, "energy": 46.827729, "activity_lines": [ 24.69889, 24.3752, 24.155497, 24.025782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.03, "volume": 52368, "typical_volume": 69802.1, "trend": 23.905902, "fair_value": 24.842664, "relative_strength": -11.702633, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.602184, "energy": 8.671684, "activity_lines": [ 24.137121, 24.18199, 24.067935, 23.969231 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.55, "volume": 30611, "typical_volume": 69128.2, "trend": 23.894094, "fair_value": 24.862286, "relative_strength": -13.590891, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.304339, "energy": 5.407361, "activity_lines": [ 23.844492, 24.097144, 24.030636, 23.94627 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }