{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da4e24e9-7ce9-4a83-ac89-ed9e8ff5b304", "symbol": "A1VY34", "name": "Avery Dennison Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.5, "architecture_energy": 85.124, "architecture_maturity": 16.109, "architecture_confidence": 92.697, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.15, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 26.5, "deceleration": 17.0, "rotation_down": 45.8, "downward_expansion": 71.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 405.0, 405.0, 413.377266, 430.443161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 405.0, "trend_reference": 450.682414, "distance_from_trend": -0.101363, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 497.633314, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.186148, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.867675, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.163328, "excess_performance": -0.10628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101363, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048034, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.186148, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004283, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178677, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.14552, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.163328, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003599, "annualized_volatility": 0.291864, "from_high_reference": -0.232793, "from_low_reference": 0.026296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 450.682414, "fair_value_reference": 497.633314, "structural_low": 394.622955, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.042413, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.041489, "worst_return": -0.269636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.066512, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.108717, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.070243, "worst_return": -0.274159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.050266, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.158559, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.02693, "worst_return": -0.262775, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003412, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00681, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000837, "active": false }, { "regime": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.329159, "energy": 88.540469, "activity_lines": [ 403.134941, 419.465461, 448.66279, 459.866083 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 405.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.25, "trend": 467.704279, "fair_value": 497.92104, "relative_strength": -21.710199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.956762, "energy": 67.99524, "activity_lines": [ 404.06747, 413.187601, 442.88969, 455.69856 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 405.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.25, "trend": 465.811948, "fair_value": 497.910832, "relative_strength": -23.115887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.478059, "energy": 67.175405, "activity_lines": [ 404.879637, 408.551658, 437.493071, 451.653122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 405.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.25, "trend": 463.859207, "fair_value": 497.900624, "relative_strength": -22.863527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.893746, "energy": 66.099041, "activity_lines": [ 405.0, 405.557632, 432.472931, 447.729771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 405.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.25, "trend": 461.223848, "fair_value": 497.890416, "relative_strength": -23.651634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.269366, "energy": 61.777912, "activity_lines": [ 405.0, 404.204195, 427.829271, 443.932403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 405.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.2, "trend": 458.58849, "fair_value": 497.880208, "relative_strength": -21.005025, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.779382, "energy": 60.599148, "activity_lines": [ 405.0, 404.491347, 423.562091, 440.305057 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 405.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.2, "trend": 455.953131, "fair_value": 497.869999, "relative_strength": -20.316136, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.161294, "energy": 59.134266, "activity_lines": [ 405.0, 404.745674, 419.726911, 436.847736 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 405.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.2, "trend": 453.317772, "fair_value": 497.751657, "relative_strength": -21.20672, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.386328, "energy": 57.351538, "activity_lines": [ 405.0, 404.967174, 416.331969, 433.560437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 405.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.2, "trend": 450.682414, "fair_value": 497.633314, "relative_strength": -17.867675, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.499789, "energy": 85.124486, "activity_lines": [ 405.0, 405.0, 413.377266, 430.443161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }