{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da542a7a-791d-4666-a8d1-0d7818f6ba93", "symbol": "PSQ", "name": "ProShares Short QQQ", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.985, "architecture_energy": 45.674, "architecture_maturity": 91.981, "architecture_confidence": 72.19, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.05, "rotation_up": 27.81, "upward_expansion": 23.04, "deceleration": 46.88, "rotation_down": 38.04, "downward_expansion": 59.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 454.69, 454.237978, 457.7872, 475.060689 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 438.5, "trend_reference": 493.954751, "distance_from_trend": -0.112267, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 546.853428, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.19814, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.692815, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.163145, "excess_performance": -0.108478, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112267, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062023, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.19814, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052804, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186928, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116687, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.163145, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.532391, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2211, "relative_activity": 0.140153, "balance": 3.532391, "dry_up": 0.08483, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032211, "annualized_volatility": 0.303439, "from_high_reference": -0.296334, "from_low_reference": 0.011239 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 493.954751, "fair_value_reference": 546.853428, "structural_low": 433.626465, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.025138, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.021381, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 4.241379, "worst_return": -0.079668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.072634, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.093157, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 4.189331, "worst_return": -0.152463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.130252, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.207211, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 3.980912, "worst_return": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.768107, "energy": 39.263499, "activity_lines": [ 458.698004, 453.518436, 463.772285, 480.862667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 467.899994, "volume": 2477, "typical_volume": 16174.4, "trend": 497.089569, "fair_value": 545.160417, "relative_strength": -14.058233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.579807, "energy": 26.562536, "activity_lines": [ 461.897335, 456.749881, 461.957346, 478.840662 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 438.5, "volume": 2211, "typical_volume": 15775.6, "trend": 493.954751, "fair_value": 546.853428, "relative_strength": -18.692815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.984865, "energy": 45.673522, "activity_lines": [ 454.69, 454.237978, 457.7872, 475.060689 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }