{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da552c08-e65a-4200-a13e-8810b230c130", "symbol": "MTH", "name": "Meritage Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 73.56, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.971, "architecture_energy": 21.476, "architecture_maturity": 57.414, "architecture_confidence": 78.507, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.99, "rotation_up": 23.39, "upward_expansion": 59.57, "deceleration": 91.03, "rotation_down": 32.87, "downward_expansion": 16.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.096, 75.027556, 72.302804, 70.754775 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 74.59, "trend_reference": 70.045638, "distance_from_trend": 0.064877, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 73.677674, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012383, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.650844, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.003644, "excess_performance": -0.129269, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064877, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033381, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012383, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125195, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056508, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108228, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003644, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.262446, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4483178, "relative_activity": 1.011463, "balance": 1.262446, "dry_up": 1.031857, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083608, "annualized_volatility": 0.423147, "from_high_reference": -0.126376, "from_low_reference": 0.293675 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.045638, "fair_value_reference": 73.677674, "structural_low": 57.657466, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027163, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00706, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.178167, "worst_return": -0.131147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.117125, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.091594, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.183419, "worst_return": 0.030997, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.167361, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.097161, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.220102, "worst_return": 0.149552, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044768, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094996, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122906, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130284, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041713, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09926, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.817979, "energy": 37.826275, "activity_lines": [ 75.788667, 75.5775, 71.59589, 70.440351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.2, "volume": 5140651, "typical_volume": 4620536.55, "trend": 70.039609, "fair_value": 73.635501, "relative_strength": -8.346657, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.709018, "energy": 21.543851, "activity_lines": [ 73.211333, 74.961459, 71.759323, 70.461202 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.59, "volume": 4483178, "typical_volume": 4432368.3, "trend": 70.045638, "fair_value": 73.677674, "relative_strength": -5.650844, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.970657, "energy": 21.475878, "activity_lines": [ 73.096, 75.027556, 72.302804, 70.754775 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }