{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da5aef46-a828-4918-8de3-2ab4af1f1295", "symbol": "IBTK", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS DEC 2030 TERM TREASURY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.832, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.071, "architecture_energy": 44.675, "architecture_maturity": 20.397, "architecture_confidence": 89.449, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.07, "rotation_up": 18.2, "upward_expansion": 7.85, "deceleration": 43.53, "rotation_down": 57.2, "downward_expansion": 83.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.367832, 19.388441, 19.416007, 19.454422 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.405, "trend_reference": 19.501794, "distance_from_trend": -0.004963, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.56465, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045266, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.054229, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.009551, "excess_performance": -0.197004, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004963, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0019, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045266, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01436, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130542, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033258, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009551, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.730215, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2153825, "relative_activity": 1.742821, "balance": 1.730215, "dry_up": 1.496689, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005806, "annualized_volatility": 0.032107, "from_high_reference": -0.021148, "from_low_reference": 0.014341 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.501794, "fair_value_reference": 18.56465, "structural_low": 19.279964, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.002828, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.015046, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.040108, "worst_return": -0.041559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.027738, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.018655, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.048058, "worst_return": -0.088297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.010323, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007375, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.044947, "worst_return": -0.056533, 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18.516096, "relative_strength": -14.803698, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.077828, "energy": 26.68117, "activity_lines": [ 19.42354, 19.419395, 19.456915, 19.492776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.40956, "volume": 2693543, "typical_volume": 1144550.25, "trend": 19.520438, "fair_value": 18.527583, "relative_strength": -10.613823, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.374229, "energy": 27.108252, "activity_lines": [ 19.416218, 19.417613, 19.448177, 19.48535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.319839, "volume": 1232532, "typical_volume": 1166163.25, "trend": 19.512563, "fair_value": 18.539357, "relative_strength": -9.278662, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.246798, "energy": 47.149137, "activity_lines": [ 19.380654, 19.40136, 19.432846, 19.472408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.334793, "volume": 1318692, "typical_volume": 1187089.85, "trend": 19.506008, "fair_value": 18.551231, "relative_strength": -9.329662, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.967364, "energy": 55.834063, "activity_lines": [ 19.356725, 19.38823, 19.420549, 19.460939 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.405, "volume": 2153825, "typical_volume": 1235826.7, "trend": 19.501794, "fair_value": 18.56465, "relative_strength": -13.054229, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.070683, "energy": 44.6752, "activity_lines": [ 19.367832, 19.388441, 19.416007, 19.454422 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }