{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da618226-6e2d-486d-9395-9645befad753", "symbol": "3005", "name": "CSOP ETF Series - CSOP CSI 500 ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.048, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.696, "architecture_energy": 40.674, "architecture_maturity": 23.915, "architecture_confidence": 39.973, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.81, "rotation_up": 16.7, "upward_expansion": 20.38, "deceleration": 68.34, "rotation_down": 67.5, "downward_expansion": 43.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.602667, 26.398182, 26.828381, 26.739527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.440001, "trend_reference": 26.653333, "distance_from_trend": -0.008004, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.139167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.38146, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.571572, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.019275, "excess_performance": 0.052857, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008004, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054826, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.38146, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165961, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.065716, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155311, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019275, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.988821, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37200, "relative_activity": 1.023665, "balance": 1.988821, "dry_up": 3.143919, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041836, "annualized_volatility": 0.282607, "from_high_reference": -0.088276, "from_low_reference": 0.353815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.653333, "fair_value_reference": 19.139167, "structural_low": 23.52, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.01126, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.016291, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.036265, "worst_return": -0.051125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.081375, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.070373, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.094069, "worst_return": -0.190843, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.065903, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.039839, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.176551, "worst_return": -0.104261, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006243, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090757, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039521, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044341, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.151913, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047663, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044463, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088546, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034892, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067851, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.530001, "volume": 10200, "typical_volume": 5030.0, "trend": 18.293, "fair_value": 20.379679, "relative_strength": -2.736319, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.921004, "energy": 57.761372, "activity_lines": [ 27.914667, 27.752364, 27.158953, 26.800946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 28.559999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22500.0, "trend": 26.250667, "fair_value": 18.869103, "relative_strength": 29.928791, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.716922, "energy": 74.896767, "activity_lines": [ 28.217333, 27.925818, 27.324953, 26.963957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.879999, "volume": 27600, "typical_volume": 23880.0, "trend": 26.434667, "fair_value": 18.936154, "relative_strength": 21.548861, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.921294, "energy": 74.344411, "activity_lines": [ 28.212, 27.943636, 27.416571, 27.069075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.76, "volume": 89000, "typical_volume": 23480.0, "trend": 26.513333, "fair_value": 18.984295, "relative_strength": 5.690768, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.707843, "energy": 6.000992, "activity_lines": [ 27.113333, 27.377091, 27.205333, 26.961032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.92, "volume": 298800, "typical_volume": 36960.0, "trend": 26.582, "fair_value": 19.032372, "relative_strength": 4.165015, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.68573, "energy": 36.986262, "activity_lines": [ 26.196, 26.905454, 27.024286, 26.858237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.92, "volume": 32000, "typical_volume": 35250.0, "trend": 26.618, "fair_value": 19.078654, "relative_strength": 0.088733, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.475319, "energy": 45.59177, "activity_lines": [ 25.525333, 26.487273, 26.850381, 26.751011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.440001, "volume": 37200, "typical_volume": 36340.0, "trend": 26.653333, "fair_value": 19.139167, "relative_strength": 6.571572, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.695763, "energy": 40.674238, "activity_lines": [ 25.602667, 26.398182, 26.828381, 26.739527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }