{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da6a2735-c218-445e-8b7a-1530d86e00da", "symbol": "EMDV", "name": "PROSHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS DIVIDEND GROWERS ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.261, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.406, "architecture_energy": 25.97, "architecture_maturity": 47.561, "architecture_confidence": 63.724, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.34, "rotation_up": 58.74, "upward_expansion": 31.62, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 15.24, "downward_expansion": 23.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.839413, 46.35254, 46.43149, 46.480781 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 47.6899, "trend_reference": 46.620205, "distance_from_trend": 0.022945, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43.533283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.095481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.348576, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.005853, "excess_performance": -0.131477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022945, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003522, "read": "Falling" 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"invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.004031, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.008254, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.122496, "worst_return": -0.090925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.019186, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.015811, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.06138, "worst_return": -0.069899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024641, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.02152, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.090397, "worst_return": -0.110762, "sufficient": true }, { 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"down", "direction": -65.239502, "energy": 61.102343, "activity_lines": [ 45.608701, 46.042213, 46.36026, 46.519913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 45.8685, "volume": 1007, "typical_volume": 1482.2, "trend": 46.658804, "fair_value": 43.471051, "relative_strength": -10.757916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.826016, "energy": 60.023854, "activity_lines": [ 45.636135, 45.948134, 46.301267, 46.467857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.8193, "volume": 1138, "typical_volume": 1461.3, "trend": 46.619516, "fair_value": 43.483968, "relative_strength": -9.154189, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.678421, "energy": 58.38451, "activity_lines": [ 45.642183, 45.867212, 46.248821, 46.413696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.989, "volume": 448, "typical_volume": 1335.25, "trend": 46.589955, "fair_value": 43.485887, "relative_strength": -8.028903, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.269715, "energy": 38.695838, "activity_lines": [ 45.761747, 45.852707, 46.222293, 46.373017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.1669, "volume": 207, "typical_volume": 1318.2, "trend": 46.596508, "fair_value": 43.502777, "relative_strength": -6.443859, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.270317, "energy": 12.055006, "activity_lines": [ 46.280653, 46.059201, 46.305731, 46.41024 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.6899, "volume": 383, "typical_volume": 1212.65, "trend": 46.620205, "fair_value": 43.533283, "relative_strength": -8.348576, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.405687, "energy": 25.970144, "activity_lines": [ 46.839413, 46.35254, 46.43149, 46.480781 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }