{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da6eb230-7860-4900-9111-f694a86416ab", "symbol": "CCM", "name": "Concord Medical Services Holdings", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.34, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.743, "architecture_energy": 10.119, "architecture_maturity": 36.13, "architecture_confidence": 79.008, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.59, "rotation_up": 23.72, "upward_expansion": 41.71, "deceleration": 79.67, "rotation_down": 36.11, "downward_expansion": 35.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.456, 4.545091, 4.617071, 4.481376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.53, "trend_reference": 4.341417, "distance_from_trend": 0.043438, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.358512, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.287569, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.741356, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.195251, "excess_performance": 0.069626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043438, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0315, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.287569, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092955, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127414, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138841, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.195251, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.005792, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 280560, "relative_activity": 1.404536, "balance": 1.005792, "dry_up": 1.470429, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.220496, "annualized_volatility": 0.751595, "from_high_reference": -0.351003, "from_low_reference": 0.424439 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.341417, "fair_value_reference": 6.358512, "structural_low": 3.1802, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.05987, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.100523, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.318182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.074773, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.120343, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.04, "worst_return": -0.189545, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.308021, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.362637, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.293617, "worst_return": -0.322424, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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20.263957, "activity_lines": [ 4.8295, 4.862364, 4.560071, 4.412946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 4.39, "volume": 213415, "typical_volume": 123458.3, "trend": 4.29375, "fair_value": 6.672519, "relative_strength": -15.439893, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.087947, "energy": 14.969423, "activity_lines": [ 4.684333, 4.789682, 4.569798, 4.420016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.05, "volume": 416365, "typical_volume": 143725.6, "trend": 4.31925, "fair_value": 6.615147, "relative_strength": -3.552433, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.865369, "energy": 22.110507, "activity_lines": [ 4.795167, 4.829909, 4.639476, 4.468806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.27, "volume": 368564, "typical_volume": 160574.9, "trend": 4.32325, "fair_value": 6.552455, "relative_strength": -16.485752, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.6218, "energy": 12.170858, "activity_lines": [ 4.628, 4.708318, 4.627393, 4.465629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.3, "volume": 272888, "typical_volume": 173626.35, "trend": 4.34125, "fair_value": 6.484506, "relative_strength": -14.804385, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.219189, "energy": 12.021761, "activity_lines": [ 4.48, 4.618909, 4.615167, 4.464129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.425, "volume": 252877, "typical_volume": 185817.2, "trend": 4.346417, "fair_value": 6.416717, "relative_strength": -12.3321, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.803293, "energy": 8.070253, "activity_lines": [ 4.441667, 4.568045, 4.612464, 4.469532 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.53, "volume": 280560, "typical_volume": 199752.8, "trend": 4.341417, "fair_value": 6.358512, "relative_strength": -12.741356, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.742702, "energy": 10.119387, "activity_lines": [ 4.456, 4.545091, 4.617071, 4.481376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }