{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da7493eb-3046-4ffb-af36-e3f59c43c847", "symbol": "PSNYW", "name": "Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC Class C-1 ADS (ADW)", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.367, "architecture_energy": 19.031, "architecture_maturity": 48.943, "architecture_confidence": 79.914, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.39, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 18.56, "deceleration": 44.13, "rotation_down": 38.09, "downward_expansion": 61.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.90668, 2.880058, 2.957168, 3.144188 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.67, "trend_reference": 3.283277, "distance_from_trend": -0.186788, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.978201, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.553377, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -53.610288, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.10104, "excess_performance": -0.288494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.186788, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249085, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.553377, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039467, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.536103, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000354, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.10104, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.858872, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59583, "relative_activity": 0.288837, "balance": 3.858872, "dry_up": 4.453007, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.440049, "annualized_volatility": 1.830662, "from_high_reference": -0.88875, "from_low_reference": 0.271429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.283277, "fair_value_reference": 5.978201, "structural_low": 2.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.098861, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.129875, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.048214, "worst_return": -0.219512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.109815, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.16892, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.427976, "worst_return": -0.583348, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.315826, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.395413, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.220957, "worst_return": -0.410694, "sufficient": false }, { 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-8.406574, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.363551, "energy": 5.922087, "activity_lines": [ 3.347787, 3.074869, 3.187237, 3.317811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.79, "volume": 590788, "typical_volume": 205122.45, "trend": 3.470277, "fair_value": 6.190759, "relative_strength": -49.991995, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.963083, "energy": 17.536351, "activity_lines": [ 3.262907, 3.03872, 3.122293, 3.264826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.28, "volume": 81892, "typical_volume": 207740.5, "trend": 3.34961, "fair_value": 6.079932, "relative_strength": -58.876572, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.815303, "energy": 20.883178, "activity_lines": [ 3.01596, 2.916298, 3.017397, 3.188034 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.67, "volume": 59583, "typical_volume": 206285.95, "trend": 3.283277, "fair_value": 5.978201, "relative_strength": -53.610288, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.367032, "energy": 19.030737, "activity_lines": [ 2.90668, 2.880058, 2.957168, 3.144188 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }