{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "da7e7eff-9815-4ed3-8683-a50328d31c2e",
    "symbol": "UB0D",
    "name": "UBS Core MSCI Japan UCITS ETF hGBP dis",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 55.621,
    "architecture_energy": 32.881,
    "architecture_maturity": 58.726,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.431,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.13,
        "rotation_up": 40.48,
        "upward_expansion": 68.3,
        "deceleration": 82.62,
        "rotation_down": 26.97,
        "downward_expansion": 15.97
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        3257.833333,
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        3217.257143,
        3152.845257
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 3319.0,
    "trend_reference": 3074.840731,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.079406,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 2273.574249,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.459816,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 7.37242,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.106408,
    "excess_performance": 0.055172,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.079406,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.066179,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.459816,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0092,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.073724,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.054923,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.106408,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 5.536031,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 58219,
      "relative_activity": 2.68588,
      "balance": 5.536031,
      "dry_up": 1.313633,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.034034,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.207167,
      "from_high_reference": -0.016301,
      "from_low_reference": 0.415749
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 3074.840731,
      "fair_value_reference": 2273.574249,
      "structural_low": 2733.0,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.027057,
        "positive_rate": 0.727273,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.727273,
        "median_excess_return": 0.017644,
        "regime_survival": 0.090909,
        "best_return": 0.071164,
        "worst_return": -0.026311,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.082478,
        "positive_rate": 0.777778,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.777778,
        "median_excess_return": 0.058322,
        "regime_survival": 0.111111,
        "best_return": 0.191879,
        "worst_return": -0.096862,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.044953,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.016877,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.220352,
        "worst_return": -0.035608,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.239888,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.186017,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.321521,
        "worst_return": -0.039297,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2024-09-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.067551,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-13",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.04673,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.009868,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009267,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.006549,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.015183,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.074486,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.003908,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.006136,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 40902.25,
        "trend": 3024.688867,
        "fair_value": 2242.386972,
        "relative_strength": 6.938887,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 3273.5,
        "volume": 19671,
        "typical_volume": 35035.7,
        "trend": 3043.844906,
        "fair_value": 2252.731794,
        "relative_strength": 8.224138,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.191928,
        "energy": 43.455362,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 3192.0,
        "volume": 9328,
        "typical_volume": 21264.6,
        "trend": 3059.584326,
        "fair_value": 2262.754403,
        "relative_strength": 3.903751,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.249346,
        "energy": 31.002316,
        "activity_lines": [
          3236.6,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 3319.0,
        "volume": 58219,
        "typical_volume": 21675.95,
        "trend": 3074.840731,
        "fair_value": 2273.574249,
        "relative_strength": 7.37242,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.621028,
        "energy": 32.881284,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}