{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da8407a5-f13a-476f-b03f-00207b3ca186", "symbol": "GHG", "name": "GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.049, "architecture_energy": 33.021, "architecture_maturity": 98.781, "architecture_confidence": 80.075, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.55, "rotation_up": 24.59, "upward_expansion": 3.46, "deceleration": 58.05, "rotation_down": 40.3, "downward_expansion": 72.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.142667, 1.146447, 1.164922, 1.196844 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.12, "trend_reference": 1.26533, "distance_from_trend": -0.114855, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.413421, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.535928, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.061035, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.245791, "excess_performance": -0.371416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146681, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.535928, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015425, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.36061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034827, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.245791, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.778306, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34812, "relative_activity": 0.395851, "balance": 0.778306, "dry_up": 0.319582, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076236, "annualized_volatility": 0.318981, "from_high_reference": -0.551258, "from_low_reference": 0.018182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.26533, "fair_value_reference": 2.413421, "structural_low": 1.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.017442, "positive_rate": 0.365854, "directional_follow_through": 0.609756, "median_excess_return": -0.025999, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.419117, "worst_return": -0.283186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.156506, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.151421, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.229774, "worst_return": -0.378474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.137642, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.323619, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.028422, "worst_return": -0.483556, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.16125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.188272, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038168, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073079, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106617, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", 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[ 1.155327, 1.155262, 1.175469, 1.216962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.155, "volume": 21283, "typical_volume": 93275.9, "trend": 1.28433, "fair_value": 2.442784, "relative_strength": -32.776708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.659715, "energy": 23.642468, "activity_lines": [ 1.155667, 1.154355, 1.171469, 1.207446 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.12, "volume": 34812, "typical_volume": 87942.1, "trend": 1.26533, "fair_value": 2.413421, "relative_strength": -36.061035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.048919, "energy": 33.020909, "activity_lines": [ 1.142667, 1.146447, 1.164922, 1.196844 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }