{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da8a214d-ede4-4da0-a5c5-7e935e5b11f2", "symbol": "605088", "name": "GSP Automotive Group Wenzhou Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.095, "architecture_energy": 88.121, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.652, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.67, "rotation_up": 8.07, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 78.43, "downward_expansion": 95.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.154666, 24.227818, 28.278855, 30.231725 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.16, "trend_reference": 32.593308, "distance_from_trend": -0.350787, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.694003, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.235936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.247647, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.425, "excess_performance": -0.381796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.350787, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074263, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.235936, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.613921, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.382476, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.297415, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.425, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.287469, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24807764, "relative_activity": 1.381732, "balance": 0.287469, "dry_up": 1.801299, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139588, "annualized_volatility": 0.560526, "from_high_reference": -0.515789, "from_low_reference": 0.103808 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.593308, "fair_value_reference": 27.694003, "structural_low": 19.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.041501, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.009245, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.168103, "worst_return": -0.305895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.06463, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.032577, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.376101, "worst_return": -0.022862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.396683, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.457646, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.856828, "worst_return": -0.103074, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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33.993867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.809999, "volume": 17882260, "typical_volume": 14066165.1, "trend": 34.443641, "fair_value": 27.587105, "relative_strength": -20.961109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.907493, "energy": 78.214135, "activity_lines": [ 29.755333, 31.249385, 32.80284, 33.619783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.950001, "volume": 40041733, "typical_volume": 15367802.0, "trend": 34.069308, "fair_value": 27.622636, "relative_strength": -35.494162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.652486, "energy": 91.022206, "activity_lines": [ 26.982667, 29.307669, 31.69332, 32.813741 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.309999, "volume": 40900878, "typical_volume": 16660646.1, "trend": 33.567308, "fair_value": 27.638238, "relative_strength": -43.357272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.133457, "energy": 95.613062, "activity_lines": [ 24.1, 27.153182, 30.397371, 31.861528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.219999, "volume": 23612456, "typical_volume": 17327950.3, "trend": 33.074641, "fair_value": 27.661636, "relative_strength": -40.128384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.429085, "energy": 93.659583, "activity_lines": [ 22.217333, 25.469194, 29.260422, 31.000411 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.16, "volume": 24807764, "typical_volume": 17954107.45, "trend": 32.593308, "fair_value": 27.694003, "relative_strength": -38.247647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.094937, "energy": 88.120586, "activity_lines": [ 21.154666, 24.227818, 28.278855, 30.231725 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }