{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da8a673a-4fa9-4fdf-97a0-450ec2c5e8f2", "symbol": "CHOTI", "name": "Kiang Huat Sea Gull Trading Frozen Food Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 58.426, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.449, "architecture_energy": 41.727, "architecture_maturity": 24.179, "architecture_confidence": 51.117, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.76, "rotation_up": 43.62, "upward_expansion": 66.35, "deceleration": 69.86, "rotation_down": 28.76, "downward_expansion": 13.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.55, 67.286364, 67.008333, 66.467204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 70.0, "trend_reference": 65.608333, "distance_from_trend": 0.066938, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 77.780449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100031, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.568126, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.098039, "excess_performance": -0.094286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066938, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030363, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100031, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098923, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065681, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050079, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098039, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.083333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1100, "relative_activity": 1.358025, "balance": 5.083333, "dry_up": 0.771605, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018681, "annualized_volatility": 0.149018, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.171548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.608333, "fair_value_reference": 77.780449, "structural_low": 60.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003345, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.007425, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.095436, "worst_return": -0.092448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.065416, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.009299, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.199858, "worst_return": -0.140408, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.224016, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.233615, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.591973, "worst_return": -0.077691, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.326678, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.319288, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.617869, "worst_return": 0.035487, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.168831, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018939, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003984, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044355, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019685, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034615, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041322, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007722, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027237, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076923, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 128.5, "volume": 3800, "typical_volume": 4095.0, "trend": 132.982354, "fair_value": 101.615495, "relative_strength": -0.350497, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.284604, "energy": 21.717976, 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.534799, "energy": 37.643487, "activity_lines": [ 129.666667, 125.018182, 122.692857, 124.90797 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 128.0, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 3715.0, "trend": 128.509805, "fair_value": 103.311794, "relative_strength": -3.024321, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.445612, "energy": 40.565993, "activity_lines": [ 129.766667, 126.109091, 123.130952, 124.796142 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 130.0, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 3725.0, "trend": 127.290197, "fair_value": 103.76249, "relative_strength": -0.445397, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.312773, "energy": 50.506874, "activity_lines": [ 129.933333, 127.4, 123.797619, 124.892283 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 130.0, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 3675.0, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 67.771257, "energy": 87.261221, "activity_lines": [ 68.75, 67.890909, 66.628571, 65.751613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 65.5, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 720.0, "trend": 64.55, "fair_value": 79.363782, "relative_strength": -14.413888, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.935495, "energy": 46.774535, "activity_lines": [ 67.666667, 67.618182, 66.596429, 65.823656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 66.0, "volume": 3600, "typical_volume": 780.0, "trend": 64.733333, "fair_value": 79.049679, "relative_strength": -13.765871, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.294179, "energy": 25.59928, "activity_lines": [ 66.966667, 67.413636, 66.6, 65.917204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 65.0, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 795.0, "trend": 64.883333, "fair_value": 78.719551, "relative_strength": -15.575297, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.63598, "energy": 23.223741, "activity_lines": [ 66.116667, 66.995455, 66.502381, 65.934409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.75, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 805.0, "trend": 65.091667, "fair_value": 78.410256, "relative_strength": -13.180985, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.781941, "energy": 27.445701, "activity_lines": [ 66.1, 66.909091, 66.569048, 66.054839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 805.0, "trend": 65.266667, "fair_value": 78.094551, "relative_strength": -11.800027, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.309681, "energy": 20.557072, "activity_lines": [ 66.216667, 66.809091, 66.634524, 66.161828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.0, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 810.0, "trend": 65.608333, "fair_value": 77.780449, "relative_strength": -6.568126, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.449179, "energy": 41.726905, "activity_lines": [ 67.55, 67.286364, 67.008333, 66.467204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }