{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da978175-9478-4783-9d4b-0a6f5734b4b2", "symbol": "LPTH", "name": "LightPath Technologies Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.954, "architecture_energy": 29.931, "architecture_maturity": 13.64, "architecture_confidence": 55.069, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.13, "rotation_up": 22.06, "upward_expansion": 24.09, "deceleration": 48.38, "rotation_down": 56.16, "downward_expansion": 46.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.462, 12.153636, 13.036476, 12.831548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.06, "trend_reference": 12.491667, "distance_from_trend": 0.045497, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.712019, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.771636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.710302, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.236742, "excess_performance": 0.049289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045497, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129275, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.771636, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.314898, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.117103, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140558, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.236742, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.095021, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9527428, "relative_activity": 0.608193, "balance": 1.095021, "dry_up": 0.832736, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.243996, "annualized_volatility": 0.990533, "from_high_reference": -0.310454, "from_low_reference": 2.886905 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.491667, "fair_value_reference": 4.712019, "structural_low": 9.115, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.058609, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.030962, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.416667, "worst_return": -0.318471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.012658, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.058064, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.487705, "worst_return": -0.380621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002346, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054574, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.159836, "worst_return": -0.441558, 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.841789, "energy": 11.765837, "activity_lines": [ 13.392667, 14.055636, 13.73719, 13.15871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.46, "volume": 12992060, "typical_volume": 15120760.6, "trend": 12.452333, "fair_value": 4.526442, "relative_strength": -3.303579, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.0879, "energy": 20.316238, "activity_lines": [ 12.29, 13.398727, 13.49281, 13.036237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.83, "volume": 15806661, "typical_volume": 15274557.3, "trend": 12.512667, "fair_value": 4.583942, "relative_strength": 0.448997, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.131985, "energy": 24.426663, "activity_lines": [ 11.564, 12.828182, 13.283524, 12.93157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.37, "volume": 13853598, "typical_volume": 15625147.95, "trend": 12.467667, "fair_value": 4.638878, "relative_strength": -5.463387, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.830133, "energy": 38.67243, "activity_lines": [ 10.972667, 12.186545, 13.031571, 12.793333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.06, "volume": 9527428, "typical_volume": 15665146.15, "trend": 12.491667, "fair_value": 4.712019, "relative_strength": 11.710302, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.953516, "energy": 29.930854, "activity_lines": [ 11.462, 12.153636, 13.036476, 12.831548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }