{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da98f52e-2847-41ba-87d5-93fc4478ce70", "symbol": "NGA3S", "name": "SG ETC Daily Short -3X Natural Gas Future", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.047, "architecture_energy": 27.685, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 52.572, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.56, "rotation_up": 28.67, "upward_expansion": 32.52, "deceleration": 50.17, "rotation_down": 29.7, "downward_expansion": 43.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.10076, 0.090447, 0.08762, 0.095232 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.1112, "trend_reference": 0.21038, "distance_from_trend": -0.471433, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.868788, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.993777, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -94.255256, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.816993, "excess_performance": 0.646102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.471433, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.782664, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.993777, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001562, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.942553, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020427, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.816993, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.423024, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 428102, "relative_activity": 0.186209, "balance": 1.423024, "dry_up": 0.534355, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13759, "annualized_volatility": 1.077579, "from_high_reference": -0.980319, "from_low_reference": 1.167641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.21038, "fair_value_reference": 17.868788, "structural_low": 0.0582, 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0.262663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.0691, "volume": 27000, "typical_volume": 3282713.75, "trend": 0.663707, "fair_value": 18.958841, "relative_strength": -97.027361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.328209, "energy": 68.554271, "activity_lines": [ 0.068647, 0.072927, 0.082114, 0.22181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.092, "volume": 6755598, "typical_volume": 3481066.55, "trend": 0.581523, "fair_value": 18.705296, "relative_strength": -95.893025, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.972662, "energy": 64.8889, "activity_lines": [ 0.07618, 0.075105, 0.082742, 0.184926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0926, "volume": 972749, "typical_volume": 3267700.15, "trend": 0.487493, "fair_value": 18.509223, "relative_strength": -95.685264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.534195, "energy": 64.270166, "activity_lines": [ 0.082347, 0.077829, 0.08341, 0.153382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0854, "volume": 242969, "typical_volume": 2773544.6, "trend": 0.399957, "fair_value": 18.283296, "relative_strength": -95.848534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.972678, "energy": 63.795192, "activity_lines": [ 0.085053, 0.079373, 0.08344, 0.127441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1055, "volume": 3270184, "typical_volume": 2529114.15, "trend": 0.315973, "fair_value": 18.053492, "relative_strength": -94.660803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.489149, "energy": 53.214315, "activity_lines": [ 0.093333, 0.084545, 0.085342, 0.108444 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1112, "volume": 428102, "typical_volume": 2299036.85, "trend": 0.21038, "fair_value": 17.868788, "relative_strength": -94.255256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.046923, "energy": 27.684685, "activity_lines": [ 0.10076, 0.090447, 0.08762, 0.095232 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }