{ "ticker": { "uuid": "da9d4dcc-b7c9-4f52-99da-82ebe446aaf0", "symbol": "CEU", "name": "Amundi MSCI Europe ESG Broad Transition - UCITS ETF DR - EUR (C)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.653, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.628, "architecture_energy": 77.691, "architecture_maturity": 41.601, "architecture_confidence": 82.353, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 63.6, "upward_expansion": 89.49, "deceleration": 50.49, "rotation_down": 23.27, "downward_expansion": 16.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 446.750004, 443.902732, 435.63143, 428.689893 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 453.5, "trend_reference": 421.516665, "distance_from_trend": 0.075877, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 355.047756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277293, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.764562, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.094617, "excess_performance": -0.076274, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075877, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041528, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277293, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067096, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037646, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017852, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094617, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.356454, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6754, "relative_activity": 1.826491, "balance": 2.356454, "dry_up": 1.185773, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01809, "annualized_volatility": 0.150907, "from_high_reference": -0.000331, "from_low_reference": 0.252589 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 421.516665, "fair_value_reference": 355.047756, "structural_low": 376.149994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.009106, "positive_rate": 0.589744, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": -0.002595, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.075506, "worst_return": -0.055816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.020131, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.032214, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.07686, "worst_return": -0.032143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.062717, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.028386, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.157131, "worst_return": -0.117608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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351.147115, "relative_strength": -4.796426, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.609307, "energy": 82.540389, "activity_lines": [ 441.200004, 435.84273, 426.202381, 421.48387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 440.25, "volume": 2721, "typical_volume": 3708.9, "trend": 416.919998, "fair_value": 352.076603, "relative_strength": -3.509286, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.039406, "energy": 79.378612, "activity_lines": [ 441.456669, 437.586366, 428.231667, 423.086666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 442.950012, "volume": 4663, "typical_volume": 3710.05, "trend": 418.506665, "fair_value": 353.004487, "relative_strength": -2.670599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.994271, "energy": 75.563832, "activity_lines": [ 442.196671, 439.36455, 430.457144, 424.766021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 445.850006, "volume": 3401, "typical_volume": 3755.9, "trend": 420.023332, "fair_value": 354.002244, "relative_strength": -2.658203, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.31129, "energy": 60.704023, "activity_lines": [ 443.470005, 441.102732, 432.787859, 426.530108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 453.5, "volume": 6754, "typical_volume": 3697.8, "trend": 421.516665, "fair_value": 355.047756, "relative_strength": -3.764562, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.62768, "energy": 77.690507, "activity_lines": [ 446.750004, 443.902732, 435.63143, 428.689893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }