{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "daa0b518-1d7d-42a5-8524-f27eaad4658d",
    "symbol": "XMBR",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 83.464,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -33.53,
    "architecture_energy": 22.233,
    "architecture_maturity": 20.778,
    "architecture_confidence": 61.986,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 49.51,
        "rotation_up": 36.22,
        "upward_expansion": 22.85,
        "deceleration": 39.24,
        "rotation_down": 23.99,
        "downward_expansion": 54.51
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        4948.033333,
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        4950.907143,
        5000.868817
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 4875.0,
    "trend_reference": 5025.5,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.029947,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 4044.556348,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205324,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -3.400878,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.028594,
    "excess_performance": -0.07983,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.029947,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03377,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.205324,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.12726,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.034009,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.183611,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.028594,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.650626,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 11862,
      "relative_activity": 0.762136,
      "balance": 0.650626,
      "dry_up": 0.966885,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.032844,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.209936,
      "from_high_reference": -0.141423,
      "from_low_reference": 0.362832
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 5025.5,
      "fair_value_reference": 4044.556348,
      "structural_low": 4698.0,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.002961,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.004668,
        "regime_survival": 0.416667,
        "best_return": 0.078203,
        "worst_return": -0.047788,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.066152,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
        "median_excess_return": 0.05585,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.155925,
        "worst_return": -0.107336,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.067328,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.073047,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.165304,
        "worst_return": -0.105847,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.152381,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.118583,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.158644,
        "worst_return": 0.04196,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-02-02",
        "end": "2024-03-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.004616,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-04-05",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.007726,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.02981,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.035463,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.002099,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.047186,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.100061,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.016964,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014186,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.28781,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-05-22",
        "end": "2026-06-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.05182,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "return": 0.026365,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.029076,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.03293,
        "active": true
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        "date": "2026-04-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 92812.2,
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        "fair_value": 3966.405707,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "energy": 21.037518,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 91234.8,
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        "energy": 23.329558,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 3200,
        "typical_volume": 89603.7,
        "trend": 4875.583333,
        "fair_value": 3988.264681,
        "relative_strength": 0.037246,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 42.728604,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 6215,
        "typical_volume": 85314.15,
        "trend": 4886.616667,
        "fair_value": 3994.098015,
        "relative_strength": 0.825051,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 12121,
        "typical_volume": 84048.35,
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        "energy": 57.725061,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 3016,
        "typical_volume": 82919.5,
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        "relative_strength": -0.747689,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 83427.3,
        "trend": 4946.583333,
        "fair_value": 4018.742245,
        "relative_strength": 2.412649,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -20.392425,
        "energy": 25.880003,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 4866.5,
        "volume": 31622,
        "typical_volume": 41948.5,
        "trend": 4965.983333,
        "fair_value": 4024.514681,
        "relative_strength": -0.031402,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -15.312107,
        "energy": 17.564591,
        "activity_lines": [
          4866.1,
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          4970.509524,
          5003.86129
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 5008.0,
        "volume": 6630,
        "typical_volume": 19968.5,
        "trend": 4990.683333,
        "fair_value": 4031.040322,
        "relative_strength": 1.241123,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -7.194602,
        "energy": 12.867808,
        "activity_lines": [
          4920.7,
          4871.390909,
          4967.352381,
          5006.572043
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 5041.0,
        "volume": 10081,
        "typical_volume": 16983.55,
        "trend": 5013.716667,
        "fair_value": 4038.053143,
        "relative_strength": 0.376087,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -21.094854,
        "energy": 21.829426,
        "activity_lines": [
          4968.433333,
          4905.3,
          4967.27381,
          5009.81828
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 4875.0,
        "volume": 11862,
        "typical_volume": 15564.15,
        "trend": 5025.5,
        "fair_value": 4044.556348,
        "relative_strength": -3.400878,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -33.530266,
        "energy": 22.233363,
        "activity_lines": [
          4948.033333,
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          4950.907143,
          5000.868817
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}