{ "ticker": { "uuid": "daa444bc-5c0f-4e0d-bf8e-1f3659c854bf", "symbol": "BIRK", "name": "Birkenstock Holding plc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.744, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.789, "architecture_energy": 17.961, "architecture_maturity": 23.929, "architecture_confidence": 72.113, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.73, "rotation_up": 17.73, "upward_expansion": 53.53, "deceleration": 90.08, "rotation_down": 43.98, "downward_expansion": 24.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.214667, 42.313091, 42.060381, 41.06557 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.45, "trend_reference": 40.072, "distance_from_trend": -0.040477, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.191216, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.18523, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.504721, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.125625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040477, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010227, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.18523, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011005, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029398, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.55313, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8186879, "relative_activity": 0.777576, "balance": 0.55313, "dry_up": 0.683684, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135386, "annualized_volatility": 0.658834, "from_high_reference": -0.281711, "from_low_reference": 0.23554 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.072, "fair_value_reference": 47.191216, "structural_low": 31.12, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.022118, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052895, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.114306, "worst_return": -0.086468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.139248, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.233425, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.083476, "worst_return": -0.195021, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.262217, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.457977, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.262217, "worst_return": -0.262217, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081504, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.256319, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.178105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036651, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.158078, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": 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41.285548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.72, "volume": 7002611, "typical_volume": 10817912.1, "trend": 40.239, "fair_value": 47.25068, "relative_strength": -15.761283, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.05235, "energy": 14.040026, "activity_lines": [ 41.743333, 43.356182, 42.263286, 41.180989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.45, "volume": 8186879, "typical_volume": 10528721.1, "trend": 40.072, "fair_value": 47.191216, "relative_strength": -18.504721, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.788613, "energy": 17.961311, "activity_lines": [ 40.214667, 42.313091, 42.060381, 41.06557 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }