{ "ticker": { "uuid": "daab8365-cc82-4edc-a420-f4472d318eec", "symbol": "002607", "name": "Offcn Education Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.014, "architecture_energy": 37.516, "architecture_maturity": 90.328, "architecture_confidence": 88.437, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.17, "rotation_up": 26.93, "upward_expansion": 17.67, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 39.64, "downward_expansion": 67.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.992667, 1.946364, 2.106571, 2.261785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.15, "trend_reference": 2.466, "distance_from_trend": -0.128143, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.986795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.280165, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.682168, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.237589, "excess_performance": -0.244988, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128143, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087568, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.280165, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120425, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025165, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.237589, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.936592, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1999512917, "relative_activity": 2.870576, "balance": 0.936592, "dry_up": 1.786729, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111628, "annualized_volatility": 0.440855, "from_high_reference": -0.383954, "from_low_reference": 0.287425 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.466, "fair_value_reference": 2.986795, "structural_low": 1.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.039443, "positive_rate": 0.317073, "directional_follow_through": 0.682927, "median_excess_return": -0.047535, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.503448, "worst_return": -0.293893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.111215, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.08419, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 1.136986, "worst_return": -0.429688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.144516, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.202534, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.260274, "worst_return": -0.629442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -74.47842, "energy": 72.945695, "activity_lines": [ 1.85, 1.961818, 2.202381, 2.360645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.74, "volume": 720108767, "typical_volume": 595683730.55, "trend": 2.505333, "fair_value": 3.019231, "relative_strength": -34.914992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.090811, "energy": 67.899202, "activity_lines": [ 1.810667, 1.897455, 2.14081, 2.308946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.11, "volume": 1497401794, "typical_volume": 627415407.5, "trend": 2.485667, "fair_value": 3.0025, "relative_strength": -18.970673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.327857, "energy": 53.439462, "activity_lines": [ 1.905333, 1.915455, 2.119857, 2.283441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.15, "volume": 1999512917, "typical_volume": 696554688.25, "trend": 2.466, "fair_value": 2.986795, "relative_strength": -20.682168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.013777, "energy": 37.516197, "activity_lines": [ 1.992667, 1.946364, 2.106571, 2.261785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }