{ "ticker": { "uuid": "daaca8ea-d036-4996-a83a-6a33ce2540e5", "symbol": "FAEU", "name": "Invesco US High Yield Fallen Angels UCITS ETF (EUR Hdg)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.748, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.804, "architecture_energy": 64.209, "architecture_maturity": 28.145, "architecture_confidence": 67.595, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.34, "rotation_up": 62.4, "upward_expansion": 85.71, "deceleration": 63.61, "rotation_down": 25.48, "downward_expansion": 10.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.956667, 27.936, 27.822833, 27.745021 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.08, "trend_reference": 27.721167, "distance_from_trend": 0.012944, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.162147, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073306, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.190711, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004831, "excess_performance": -0.166061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012944, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002229, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073306, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00251, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131907, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017871, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004831, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.385445, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8490, "relative_activity": 2.33293, "balance": 0.385445, "dry_up": 1.881732, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004095, "annualized_volatility": 0.051341, "from_high_reference": -0.004079, "from_low_reference": 0.070122 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.721167, "fair_value_reference": 26.162147, "structural_low": 26.24, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.000797, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.020683, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.020845, "worst_return": -0.032044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003256, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.042727, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.029614, "worst_return": -0.036242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030655, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.092469, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.041493, "worst_return": 0.021421, "sufficient": true 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"2026-07-24", "close": 27.975, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2732.8, "trend": 27.711333, "fair_value": 26.111538, "relative_strength": -11.083117, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.10773, "energy": 88.124182, "activity_lines": [ 27.971667, 27.905364, 27.764786, 27.717226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.775, "volume": 18902, "typical_volume": 3507.9, "trend": 27.712833, "fair_value": 26.135865, "relative_strength": -11.947954, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.074271, "energy": 72.185502, "activity_lines": [ 27.908333, 27.894909, 27.780095, 27.721333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.08, "volume": 8490, "typical_volume": 3639.2, "trend": 27.721167, "fair_value": 26.162147, "relative_strength": -13.190711, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.804238, "energy": 64.208629, "activity_lines": [ 27.956667, 27.936, 27.822833, 27.745021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }