{ "ticker": { "uuid": "daaf4726-5cdd-4cc0-b427-9b86e7db88f9", "symbol": "UMG", "name": "Universal Music Group N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.122, "architecture_energy": 82.758, "architecture_maturity": 17.49, "architecture_confidence": 80.161, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.14, "rotation_up": 13.56, "upward_expansion": 22.73, "deceleration": 31.34, "rotation_down": 78.74, "downward_expansion": 91.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.465333, 17.362364, 18.140615, 18.268637 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.485, "trend_reference": 18.62583, "distance_from_trend": -0.168628, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.133781, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.330633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.997652, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.202979, "excess_performance": -0.377226, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168628, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066164, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.330633, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170968, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.389977, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116969, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.202979, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.414266, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3239, "relative_activity": 1.969057, "balance": 0.414266, "dry_up": 1.029971, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078328, "annualized_volatility": 0.521488, "from_high_reference": -0.374525, "from_low_reference": 0.072368 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.62583, "fair_value_reference": 23.133781, "structural_low": 14.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.001293, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.001219, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.30125, "worst_return": -0.178856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062322, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.024706, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.253771, "worst_return": -0.13214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.23094, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.141678, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.259995, "worst_return": -0.209704, "sufficient": false }, { 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14.542408, "activity_lines": [ 18.766333, 18.860934, 18.826142, 18.886203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.195, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2289.7, "trend": 19.186413, "fair_value": 23.244258, "relative_strength": -28.274213, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.699032, "energy": 23.757971, "activity_lines": [ 18.629333, 18.69699, 18.791565, 18.814528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.395, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1446.4, "trend": 19.075837, "fair_value": 23.220625, "relative_strength": -27.413765, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.901753, "energy": 17.668695, "activity_lines": [ 18.539667, 18.593364, 18.779327, 18.763469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.755, "volume": 3538, "typical_volume": 1505.6, "trend": 18.834063, "fair_value": 23.177632, "relative_strength": -40.939512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.800937, "energy": 73.473999, "activity_lines": [ 17.26, 17.858818, 18.417381, 18.484706 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.485, "volume": 3239, "typical_volume": 1644.95, "trend": 18.62583, "fair_value": 23.133781, "relative_strength": -38.997652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.122499, "energy": 82.758174, "activity_lines": [ 16.465333, 17.362364, 18.140615, 18.268637 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }