{ "ticker": { "uuid": "daafd1ac-e686-40e8-9608-97d0cb47209f", "symbol": "MER", "name": "Meren Energy Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.792, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.889, "architecture_energy": 33.564, "architecture_maturity": 38.043, "architecture_confidence": 62.517, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.44, "rotation_up": 24.14, "upward_expansion": 16.53, "deceleration": 63.36, "rotation_down": 43.42, "downward_expansion": 68.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.021333, 2.012727, 2.100563, 2.13666 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.01, "trend_reference": 2.14522, "distance_from_trend": -0.063033, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.89427, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.061095, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.86675, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.000862, "excess_performance": -0.119559, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063033, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053024, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.061095, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126194, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078667, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196876, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000862, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.264584, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2251500, "relative_activity": 0.682638, "balance": 1.264584, "dry_up": 1.092046, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055763, "annualized_volatility": 0.318388, "from_high_reference": -0.203648, "from_low_reference": 0.350904 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.14522, "fair_value_reference": 1.89427, "structural_low": 1.93, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015075, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.015677, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.270936, "worst_return": -0.092414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.120697, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.064209, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.55793, "worst_return": -0.087587, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.061815, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023557, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.233361, "worst_return": -0.09129, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.123712, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.126214, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.003068, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122924, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060774, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064136, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.315714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118721, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01005, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.496628, "volume": 2213800, "typical_volume": 2086915.0, "trend": 2.354585, "fair_value": 1.644452, "relative_strength": 8.651592, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.290305, 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.571618, "energy": 35.156036, "activity_lines": [ 2.012, 2.033818, 2.133373, 2.151888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.02, "volume": 3214400, "typical_volume": 3492925.0, "trend": 2.136874, "fair_value": 1.897914, "relative_strength": -4.411333, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.673001, "energy": 26.119649, "activity_lines": [ 2.021333, 2.021091, 2.117085, 2.144846 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.01, "volume": 2251500, "typical_volume": 3298235.0, "trend": 2.14522, "fair_value": 1.89427, "relative_strength": -7.86675, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.888909, "energy": 33.564312, "activity_lines": [ 2.021333, 2.012727, 2.100563, 2.13666 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }