{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dab2d4a2-7975-4c58-bfb3-6b78a2a43bdb", "symbol": "KWM", "name": "K.W. Metal Work Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.694, "architecture_energy": 63.424, "architecture_maturity": 11.987, "architecture_confidence": 54.292, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.16, "rotation_up": 66.58, "upward_expansion": 59.38, "deceleration": 26.64, "rotation_down": 16.36, "downward_expansion": 22.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.907333, 0.872364, 0.837849, 0.834101 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.9, "trend_reference": 0.837332, "distance_from_trend": 0.074843, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.044073, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.137991, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.772851, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.038408, "excess_performance": -0.153917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074843, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013113, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.137991, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118796, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117729, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118038, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038408, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.104859, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 455900, "relative_activity": 0.318625, "balance": 8.104859, "dry_up": 1.579358, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065812, "annualized_volatility": 0.24481, "from_high_reference": -0.172949, "from_low_reference": 0.184211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.837332, "fair_value_reference": 1.044073, "structural_low": 0.76, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.015037, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.02883, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.006712, "worst_return": -0.050955, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.112566, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.08897, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.097744, "worst_return": -0.127388, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.198231, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065508, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.15586, "worst_return": -0.240602, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.847333, 0.817636, 0.808741, 0.818084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.95, "volume": 4338300, "typical_volume": 1468535.0, "trend": 0.83447, "fair_value": 1.049507, "relative_strength": -9.729364, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.798516, "energy": 52.216834, "activity_lines": [ 0.888667, 0.844545, 0.822088, 0.825717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9, "volume": 489200, "typical_volume": 1461650.0, "trend": 0.83558, "fair_value": 1.046763, "relative_strength": -12.895652, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.293006, "energy": 59.154735, "activity_lines": [ 0.902, 0.859636, 0.83014, 0.829945 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9, "volume": 455900, "typical_volume": 1430835.0, "trend": 0.837332, "fair_value": 1.044073, "relative_strength": -11.772851, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.693554, "energy": 63.423561, "activity_lines": [ 0.907333, 0.872364, 0.837849, 0.834101 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }