{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dabe5eed-f6f2-495d-a767-df7e90537f98", "symbol": "ALCO", "name": "Alico Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.689, "architecture_energy": 70.467, "architecture_maturity": 26.878, "architecture_confidence": 81.105, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.85, "rotation_up": 11.28, "upward_expansion": 17.65, "deceleration": 34.33, "rotation_down": 72.78, "downward_expansion": 88.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.728, 39.703074, 40.349418, 40.53973 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 38.2, "trend_reference": 40.680685, "distance_from_trend": -0.060979, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.202736, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224252, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.215676, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.065821, "excess_performance": -0.253274, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060979, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041515, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224252, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122157, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062992, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065821, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.877936, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 109640, "relative_activity": 0.996329, "balance": 0.877936, "dry_up": 0.898811, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045126, "annualized_volatility": 0.195586, "from_high_reference": -0.1513, "from_low_reference": 0.222777 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.680685, "fair_value_reference": 31.202736, "structural_low": 37.096006, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.018374, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.012111, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.18424, "worst_return": -0.125806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.013646, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.005071, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302007, "worst_return": -0.145978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.125673, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.086128, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.303887, "worst_return": 0.019168, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.951658, "energy": 17.738962, "activity_lines": [ 41.23346, 41.095437, 41.136483, 40.998919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.62, "volume": 86982, "typical_volume": 118920.95, "trend": 40.577138, "fair_value": 31.027031, "relative_strength": -6.399226, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.771033, "energy": 22.63034, "activity_lines": [ 40.377337, 40.66947, 40.908772, 40.877175 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.76, "volume": 123121, "typical_volume": 116836.7, "trend": 40.613255, "fair_value": 31.112875, "relative_strength": -8.897202, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.372593, "energy": 53.425687, "activity_lines": [ 39.346, 40.114448, 40.606454, 40.695424 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.2, "volume": 109640, "typical_volume": 110044.0, "trend": 40.680685, "fair_value": 31.202736, "relative_strength": -12.215676, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.689049, "energy": 70.467012, "activity_lines": [ 38.728, 39.703074, 40.349418, 40.53973 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }