{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dac16f92-07b8-4388-91b8-63c2aa664e38", "symbol": "XF1", "name": "Xref Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.289, "architecture_energy": 92.009, "architecture_maturity": 88.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.223, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.71, "rotation_up": 12.7, "upward_expansion": 21.95, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 79.07, "downward_expansion": 97.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0572, 0.062164, 0.069457, 0.076142 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.053, "trend_reference": 0.088167, "distance_from_trend": -0.398866, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.144904, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.63424, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -58.354977, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.576, "excess_performance": -0.639706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.398866, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.261586, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.63424, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283618, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.58355, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280111, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.576, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.154714, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1798176, "relative_activity": 4.73559, "balance": 0.154714, "dry_up": 2.97898, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13643, "annualized_volatility": 1.146567, "from_high_reference": -0.741463, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.088167, "fair_value_reference": 0.144904, "structural_low": 0.053, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.069048, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.052874, "regime_survival": 0.911765, "best_return": 0.724138, "worst_return": -0.39, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.16, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.186319, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.571429, "worst_return": -0.410714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.188732, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.112074, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.37037, "worst_return": -0.566667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.158103, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.227695, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.041667, "worst_return": -0.679612, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.148148, "active": false }, 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0.0686, 0.068055, 0.075933, 0.08354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.061, "volume": 55465, "typical_volume": 188473.65, "trend": 0.094733, "fair_value": 0.146647, "relative_strength": -51.270428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.41633, "energy": 59.597006, "activity_lines": [ 0.065733, 0.066545, 0.074071, 0.081172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.055, "volume": 2106179, "typical_volume": 290447.6, "trend": 0.091233, "fair_value": 0.145782, "relative_strength": -56.268867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.97555, "energy": 86.183047, "activity_lines": [ 0.061133, 0.064309, 0.071776, 0.078609 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.053, "volume": 1798176, "typical_volume": 379715.3, "trend": 0.088167, "fair_value": 0.144904, "relative_strength": -58.354977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.288736, "energy": 92.008506, "activity_lines": [ 0.0572, 0.062164, 0.069457, 0.076142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }