{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dac79d33-3fad-4e29-a4a9-7cf400544186", "symbol": "MLSML", "name": "Smalto Holding SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.391, "architecture_energy": 37.943, "architecture_maturity": 41.065, "architecture_confidence": 82.103, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.89, "rotation_up": 15.45, "upward_expansion": 3.98, "deceleration": 50.62, "rotation_down": 55.41, "downward_expansion": 74.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0241, 0.024964, 0.026383, 0.027274 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.0265, "trend_reference": 0.0292, "distance_from_trend": -0.092466, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.020154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.314885, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.163006, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.184615, "excess_performance": -0.237927, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092466, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103836, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.314885, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238899, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16163, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257335, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.184615, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.67438, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9546, "relative_activity": 1.155431, "balance": 4.67438, "dry_up": 1.767794, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164006, "annualized_volatility": 0.935836, "from_high_reference": -0.47, "from_low_reference": 0.325 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0292, "fair_value_reference": 0.020154, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.366667, "median_excess_return": 0.008055, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.555556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.052044, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 1.333333, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.014326, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.294118, "worst_return": -0.545455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.014468, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031961, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.882353, "worst_return": -0.613636, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.15625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185185, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.388889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.73913, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.95122, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.101695, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017241, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084746, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.016, "volume": 2156, "typical_volume": 21828.4, "trend": 0.017617, "fair_value": 0.020853, "relative_strength": -19.308345, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.13522, "energy": 41.959031, "activity_lines": [ 0.026133, 0.027318, 0.027821, 0.028916 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.022, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5541.75, "trend": 0.0306, "fair_value": 0.020022, "relative_strength": -27.192794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.563466, "energy": 68.106722, "activity_lines": [ 0.0247, 0.026182, 0.027226, 0.028333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.027, "volume": 41652, "typical_volume": 7572.85, "trend": 0.03015, "fair_value": 0.020106, "relative_strength": -11.468647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.180036, "energy": 51.325778, "activity_lines": [ 0.025, 0.0261, 0.027145, 0.028101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0205, "volume": 7223, "typical_volume": 7900.0, "trend": 0.029667, "fair_value": 0.020109, "relative_strength": -33.782401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.291867, "energy": 69.282674, "activity_lines": [ 0.023267, 0.0249, 0.026457, 0.027478 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0265, "volume": 9546, "typical_volume": 8261.85, "trend": 0.0292, "fair_value": 0.020154, "relative_strength": -16.163006, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.390733, "energy": 37.943392, "activity_lines": [ 0.0241, 0.024964, 0.026383, 0.027274 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }