{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dacc1885-d058-4f46-a802-71992d1ef947", "symbol": "BUOU", "name": "Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.326, "architecture_energy": 29.593, "architecture_maturity": 6.033, "architecture_confidence": 57.004, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.16, "rotation_up": 41.19, "upward_expansion": 71.98, "deceleration": 61.89, "rotation_down": 21.39, "downward_expansion": 3.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.978, 0.975636, 0.970511, 0.961167 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.97, "trend_reference": 0.95748, "distance_from_trend": 0.013076, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.891422, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088149, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.999005, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009639, "excess_performance": -0.164474, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013076, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01086, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088149, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010473, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12999, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119545, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009639, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.861671, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59130600, "relative_activity": 1.243765, "balance": 1.861671, "dry_up": 1.199998, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031316, "annualized_volatility": 0.165866, "from_high_reference": -0.04902, "from_low_reference": 0.185984 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.95748, "fair_value_reference": 0.891422, "structural_low": 0.853374, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.00329, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000312, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.067416, "worst_return": -0.115044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.025404, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.018463, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.089888, "worst_return": -0.213194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.072422, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066111, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.159027, "worst_return": -0.191093, "sufficient": false }, { 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46931040.0, "trend": 0.957096, "fair_value": 0.892074, "relative_strength": -10.54585, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.712383, "energy": 7.9763, "activity_lines": [ 0.968333, 0.973, 0.961187, 0.956521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.985, "volume": 53490400, "typical_volume": 45968660.0, "trend": 0.957766, "fair_value": 0.891773, "relative_strength": -10.307748, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.029997, "energy": 22.400898, "activity_lines": [ 0.973667, 0.975091, 0.964885, 0.958321 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.99, "volume": 79767800, "typical_volume": 46978345.0, "trend": 0.958118, "fair_value": 0.891609, "relative_strength": -10.331184, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.232726, "energy": 35.079516, "activity_lines": [ 0.979667, 0.977273, 0.968849, 0.9604 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.97, "volume": 59130600, "typical_volume": 47541625.0, "trend": 0.95748, "fair_value": 0.891422, "relative_strength": -12.999005, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.326269, "energy": 29.593066, "activity_lines": [ 0.978, 0.975636, 0.970511, 0.961167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }