{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dad392ad-6ca1-44e3-a1dc-b7f2a22d9982", "symbol": "UC67", "name": "UBS MSCI USA UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.94, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.489, "architecture_energy": 66.33, "architecture_maturity": 64.951, "architecture_confidence": 69.937, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.39, "rotation_up": 55.08, "upward_expansion": 81.85, "deceleration": 69.37, "rotation_down": 28.02, "downward_expansion": 10.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 732.143335, 728.279089, 721.379284, 707.127996 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 751.950012, "trend_reference": 690.919167, "distance_from_trend": 0.088333, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 566.801359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326655, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.21068, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.132275, "excess_performance": 0.08104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088333, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034437, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.326655, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008455, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032107, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020078, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132275, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.947368, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94, "relative_activity": 0.424283, "balance": 0.947368, "dry_up": 0.297901, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016723, "annualized_volatility": 0.129837, "from_high_reference": -0.000208, "from_low_reference": 0.222982 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 690.919167, "fair_value_reference": 566.801359, "structural_low": 618.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.016515, "positive_rate": 0.717949, "directional_follow_through": 0.717949, "median_excess_return": 0.006883, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.062677, "worst_return": -0.092071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.05064, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.011841, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.133794, "worst_return": -0.068752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.092392, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.027795, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.171371, "worst_return": -0.165026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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723.18545, 716.521902, 703.017476 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 751.950012, "volume": 94, "typical_volume": 221.55, "trend": 690.919167, "fair_value": 566.801359, "relative_strength": 3.21068, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.4891, "energy": 66.330291, "activity_lines": [ 732.143335, 728.279089, 721.379284, 707.127996 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }