{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dad8207a-69ea-414f-b424-53162c340db0", "symbol": "JCTC", "name": "Jewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 91.416, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.7, "architecture_energy": 78.568, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.063, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.62, "rotation_up": 78.09, "upward_expansion": 91.94, "deceleration": 43.19, "rotation_down": 10.92, "downward_expansion": 16.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.800667, 2.623273, 2.380555, 2.231418 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.14, "trend_reference": 2.075843, "distance_from_trend": 0.512638, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.922715, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.199534, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.533262, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.610256, "excess_performance": 0.422803, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.512638, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0129, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.199534, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.317129, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.105333, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.523166, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.610256, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.922915, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 130868, "relative_activity": 1.099249, "balance": 1.922915, "dry_up": 0.748819, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119223, "annualized_volatility": 0.503353, "from_high_reference": -0.218905, "from_low_reference": 1.038961 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.075843, "fair_value_reference": 3.922715, "structural_low": 1.54, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.035009, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.038345, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.246032, "worst_return": -0.115044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.129557, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.153074, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.023473, "worst_return": -0.266038, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.174159, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.278593, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.040076, "worst_return": -0.321117, "sufficient": false }, { 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1.969734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.56, "volume": 111890, "typical_volume": 111869.6, "trend": 2.006343, "fair_value": 3.99124, "relative_strength": -13.992808, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.568267, "energy": 58.265407, "activity_lines": [ 2.274667, 2.182727, 2.050919, 2.006529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.52, "volume": 158242, "typical_volume": 114772.15, "trend": 2.010343, "fair_value": 3.981433, "relative_strength": -15.560319, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.497183, "energy": 66.509252, "activity_lines": [ 2.384333, 2.256, 2.104989, 2.039668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.77, "volume": 99534, "typical_volume": 112139.65, "trend": 2.034343, "fair_value": 3.970343, "relative_strength": -2.105294, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.601662, "energy": 80.583327, "activity_lines": [ 2.542, 2.365273, 2.179345, 2.088678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.55, "volume": 75646, "typical_volume": 113777.9, "trend": 2.04201, "fair_value": 3.950663, "relative_strength": -7.412682, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.350776, "energy": 74.13495, "activity_lines": [ 2.580667, 2.420364, 2.228415, 2.121946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.65, "volume": 50546, "typical_volume": 114740.8, "trend": 2.051177, "fair_value": 3.933997, "relative_strength": -3.06189, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.208636, "energy": 69.386933, "activity_lines": [ 2.624, 2.482, 2.283294, 2.161172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.14, "volume": 130868, "typical_volume": 119052.15, "trend": 2.075843, "fair_value": 3.922715, "relative_strength": 10.533262, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.699765, "energy": 78.567646, "activity_lines": [ 2.800667, 2.623273, 2.380555, 2.231418 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }