{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dad89d0e-a9df-40da-8573-4e6b37fc6166", "symbol": "ACAST", "name": "Acast AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.154, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.922, "architecture_energy": 22.292, "architecture_maturity": 68.527, "architecture_confidence": 92.906, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.35, "rotation_up": 23.53, "upward_expansion": 56.14, "deceleration": 90.99, "rotation_down": 29.18, "downward_expansion": 19.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.040001, 37.84, 36.941429, 34.857097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.400002, "trend_reference": 32.526667, "distance_from_trend": 0.119082, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.769744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.939291, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.375712, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.295374, "excess_performance": 0.233879, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119082, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057663, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.939291, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209266, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.103757, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212383, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.295374, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.262512, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 899581, "relative_activity": 0.66716, "balance": 1.262512, "dry_up": 0.834046, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09309, "annualized_volatility": 0.399564, "from_high_reference": -0.118644, "from_low_reference": 1.131148 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.526667, "fair_value_reference": 18.769744, "structural_low": 22.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.022954, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.038248, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.177481, "worst_return": -0.139535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.277735, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.262975, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.88326, "worst_return": 0.041528, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.448238, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.365752, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.641717, "worst_return": -0.136, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045842, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079295, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.513253, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122924, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031373, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076336, "active": false }, { 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64.421685, "energy": 59.95976, "activity_lines": [ 38.613334, 37.415455, 34.063572, 32.591505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 40.75, "volume": 116271, "typical_volume": 1884999.65, "trend": 31.946667, "fair_value": 17.814103, "relative_strength": 31.96504, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.509726, "energy": 62.205455, "activity_lines": [ 39.306668, 38.276364, 34.965, 33.177742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.5, "volume": 702198, "typical_volume": 1766526.2, "trend": 32.175, "fair_value": 18.022372, "relative_strength": 29.161619, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.269176, "energy": 56.512641, "activity_lines": [ 39.503334, 38.73, 35.678572, 33.665054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.299999, "volume": 695975, "typical_volume": 1472499.5, "trend": 32.278333, "fair_value": 18.215513, "relative_strength": 21.949241, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.01047, "energy": 47.611778, "activity_lines": [ 38.916667, 38.635455, 36.109048, 33.995699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.5, "volume": 1828852, "typical_volume": 1443279.2, "trend": 32.345, "fair_value": 18.403654, "relative_strength": 16.332851, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.931866, "energy": 35.018044, "activity_lines": [ 38.006667, 38.351818, 36.409048, 34.268065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.5, "volume": 1074015, "typical_volume": 1394710.5, "trend": 32.425, "fair_value": 18.591923, "relative_strength": 16.849007, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.324971, "energy": 25.889634, "activity_lines": [ 37.676666, 38.22, 36.756191, 34.600645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.400002, "volume": 899581, "typical_volume": 1348374.1, "trend": 32.526667, "fair_value": 18.769744, "relative_strength": 10.375712, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.922238, "energy": 22.292336, "activity_lines": [ 37.040001, 37.84, 36.941429, 34.857097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }