{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dae7b15a-1f52-4cfa-a319-4c5cf879d13e", "symbol": "CRWL", "name": "GRANITESHARES 2X LONG CRWD DAILY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.139, "architecture_energy": 54.197, "architecture_maturity": 59.162, "architecture_confidence": 80.713, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.47, "rotation_up": 59.66, "upward_expansion": 80.67, "deceleration": 67.46, "rotation_down": 21.53, "downward_expansion": 7.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.467713, 63.211949, 55.104104, 47.143797 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 76.3158, "trend_reference": 38.23674, "distance_from_trend": 0.995876, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.8911, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.251795, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 85.760432, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 2.649727, "excess_performance": 2.462274, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.995876, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.271693, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.251795, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.152026, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.857604, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.987981, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.649727, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.128562, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 451602, "relative_activity": 0.455676, "balance": 2.128562, "dry_up": 0.466643, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.188255, "annualized_volatility": 1.160941, "from_high_reference": -0.052213, "from_low_reference": 4.004315 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.23674, "fair_value_reference": 33.8911, "structural_low": 15.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.211619, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.209883, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.26042, "worst_return": 0.162817, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.465639, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 24.0619, "volume": 42078, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 29.17, "volume": 149137, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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"relative_strength": 49.983717, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.323838, "energy": 52.740183, "activity_lines": [ 62.027693, 59.282407, 49.988681, 42.94092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.1848, "volume": 374744, "typical_volume": 1019474.35, "trend": 36.718763, "fair_value": 33.419714, "relative_strength": 59.536481, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.978012, "energy": 46.743678, "activity_lines": [ 61.956613, 59.962804, 51.912499, 44.58915 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.3158, "volume": 451602, "typical_volume": 991060.2, "trend": 38.23674, "fair_value": 33.8911, "relative_strength": 85.760432, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.139245, "energy": 54.196848, "activity_lines": [ 66.467713, 63.211949, 55.104104, 47.143797 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }