{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dae84a50-529f-4636-b1f4-c428af54ff64", "symbol": "688788", "name": "ShenZhen Consys Science&Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.555, "architecture_energy": 76.835, "architecture_maturity": 52.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.372, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.28, "rotation_up": 9.14, "upward_expansion": 17.47, "deceleration": 38.79, "rotation_down": 72.48, "downward_expansion": 88.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.718, 34.592468, 36.539816, 40.929591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 31.370001, "trend_reference": 48.038429, "distance_from_trend": -0.346981, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.655494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.120192, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.497544, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.524913, "excess_performance": -0.481709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.346981, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162976, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.120192, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.340932, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.424975, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123985, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.524913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.847114, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24604925, "relative_activity": 1.746522, "balance": 0.847114, "dry_up": 1.530709, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.17843, "annualized_volatility": 0.788202, "from_high_reference": -0.67472, "from_low_reference": 0.211197 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.038429, "fair_value_reference": 35.655494, "structural_low": 25.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.013906, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.001431, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.259584, "worst_return": -0.258448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.056647, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.092986, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.364325, "worst_return": -0.303906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.040251, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.103818, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.317957, "worst_return": -0.204977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-03", "close": 44.259998, "volume": 4137168, "typical_volume": 12617990.6, "trend": 53.467095, "fair_value": 35.484098, "relative_strength": -23.588757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.497482, "energy": 31.906337, "activity_lines": [ 42.257713, 39.73509, 41.994789, 47.171557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 41.900002, "volume": 19280060, "typical_volume": 12504159.65, "trend": 52.985428, "fair_value": 35.57604, "relative_strength": -26.661485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.076755, "energy": 34.1099, "activity_lines": [ 42.834, 40.269922, 41.520966, 46.425293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.82, "volume": 16690508, "typical_volume": 12811836.65, "trend": 52.026095, "fair_value": 35.601689, "relative_strength": -40.631282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.130577, "energy": 38.283859, "activity_lines": [ 39.332667, 38.909948, 40.219762, 45.059782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.620001, "volume": 24091800, "typical_volume": 12807193.5, "trend": 50.624428, "fair_value": 35.605836, "relative_strength": -48.785578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.172208, "energy": 60.919329, "activity_lines": [ 34.893334, 36.983117, 38.674272, 43.485195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.879999, "volume": 20871036, "typical_volume": 13243297.95, "trend": 49.237428, "fair_value": 35.616596, "relative_strength": -46.249663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.560052, "energy": 79.524709, "activity_lines": [ 31.893333, 35.479818, 37.414211, 42.082329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.370001, "volume": 24604925, "typical_volume": 14087959.15, "trend": 48.038429, "fair_value": 35.655494, "relative_strength": -42.497544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.554723, "energy": 76.835053, "activity_lines": [ 30.718, 34.592468, 36.539816, 40.929591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }