{ "ticker": { "uuid": "daecfd05-3fe0-4544-89ce-6fa7385f5dd8", "symbol": "THANA", "name": "Thanasiri Group Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.651, "architecture_energy": 27.008, "architecture_maturity": 5.566, "architecture_confidence": 66.862, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.93, "rotation_up": 54.42, "upward_expansion": 47.52, "deceleration": 20.96, "rotation_down": 23.47, "downward_expansion": 20.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.564667, 1.557273, 1.546905, 1.547161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.58, "trend_reference": 1.549667, "distance_from_trend": 0.019574, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.357587, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16383, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.141635, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.192325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019574, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127577, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16383, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072196, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051416, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097418, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.206718, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 846100, "relative_activity": 2.882647, "balance": 2.206718, "dry_up": 1.658263, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032132, "annualized_volatility": 0.156356, "from_high_reference": -0.168421, "from_low_reference": 0.837209 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.549667, "fair_value_reference": 1.357587, "structural_low": 1.42, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.013158, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.017617, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.323529, "worst_return": -0.178344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.094306, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.071709, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.397058, "worst_return": -0.166221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.13803, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.070369, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.101449, "worst_return": -0.352557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.219143, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.152268, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.121395, "worst_return": -0.354942, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.192818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.232704, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048387, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.166411, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010204, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073684, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.243902, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006452, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012821, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.82903, "volume": 1049800, "typical_volume": 2465130.0, "trend": 2.153931, "fair_value": 1.740076, "relative_strength": -16.971827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.988408, "energy": 24.328633, "activity_lines": [ 1.544667, 1.539818, 1.538048, 1.536925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.56, "volume": 293200, "typical_volume": 465120.0, "trend": 1.517, "fair_value": 1.363763, "relative_strength": 3.565311, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.267224, "energy": 24.432206, "activity_lines": [ 1.55, 1.544182, 1.53981, 1.540968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.56, "volume": 320000, "typical_volume": 409985.0, "trend": 1.538, "fair_value": 1.361384, "relative_strength": 2.87346, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.142751, "energy": 24.002857, "activity_lines": [ 1.553333, 1.547818, 1.541571, 1.543742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.56, "volume": 487600, "typical_volume": 265835.0, "trend": 1.549, "fair_value": 1.359243, "relative_strength": 3.575301, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.105622, "energy": 11.939708, "activity_lines": [ 1.556, 1.551091, 1.54319, 1.545161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.58, "volume": 846100, "typical_volume": 293515.0, "trend": 1.549667, "fair_value": 1.357587, "relative_strength": 5.141635, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.651319, "energy": 27.008376, "activity_lines": [ 1.564667, 1.557273, 1.546905, 1.547161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }