{ "ticker": { "uuid": "daee832d-1897-47e5-a0e8-9af9e35d0e3a", "symbol": "ANAN", "name": "Ananda Development Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.018, "architecture_energy": 19.895, "architecture_maturity": 97.659, "architecture_confidence": 67.357, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.03, "rotation_up": 33.76, "upward_expansion": 19.75, "deceleration": 44.12, "rotation_down": 25.73, "downward_expansion": 56.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.345333, 0.341091, 0.342905, 0.352688 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.34, "trend_reference": 0.369333, "distance_from_trend": -0.079422, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.57859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.412364, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.860691, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.15, "excess_performance": -0.342325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079422, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068908, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.412364, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030493, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.288607, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009051, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.892662, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10537600, "relative_activity": 0.808738, "balance": 3.892662, "dry_up": 3.154334, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076923, "annualized_volatility": 0.363016, "from_high_reference": -0.433333, "from_low_reference": 0.096774 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.369333, "fair_value_reference": 0.57859, "structural_low": 0.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.028986, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.018299, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.176471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.043998, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.08265, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.169014, "worst_return": -0.268041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.066206, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.092518, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.126761, "worst_return": -0.403361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.37, "volume": 131820600, "typical_volume": 13592920.0, "trend": 0.376, "fair_value": 0.5875, "relative_strength": -25.709814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.425214, "energy": 19.485419, "activity_lines": [ 0.342667, 0.338, 0.345524, 0.358602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.35, "volume": 17341100, "typical_volume": 13660805.0, "trend": 0.374, "fair_value": 0.584359, "relative_strength": -29.296717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.834492, "energy": 19.433906, "activity_lines": [ 0.347333, 0.340182, 0.345143, 0.356925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.34, "volume": 4700600, "typical_volume": 12740295.0, "trend": 0.371667, "fair_value": 0.581282, "relative_strength": -29.934948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.540778, "energy": 19.775808, "activity_lines": [ 0.346667, 0.340545, 0.343952, 0.354731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.34, "volume": 10537600, "typical_volume": 13029685.0, "trend": 0.369333, "fair_value": 0.57859, "relative_strength": -28.860691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.017578, "energy": 19.895164, "activity_lines": [ 0.345333, 0.341091, 0.342905, 0.352688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }