{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "daf1d953-ef2e-4114-b444-10068423fbfe",
    "symbol": "ECTN",
    "name": "WisdomTree Cotton - EUR Daily Hedged",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 74.41,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 56.572,
    "architecture_energy": 45.791,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.868,
    "architecture_confidence": 53.522,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.",
        "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 31.24,
        "rotation_up": 64.51,
        "upward_expansion": 74.68,
        "deceleration": 44.69,
        "rotation_down": 12.34,
        "downward_expansion": 15.68
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        8.395133,
        8.245473,
        8.276886,
        8.165101
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 8.641,
    "trend_reference": 7.957867,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.085844,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 8.962912,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.035916,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.202681,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.217557,
    "excess_performance": 0.046665,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.085844,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.029585,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.035916,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.030484,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.052027,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.085055,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.217557,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.228597,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1773,
      "relative_activity": 0.440316,
      "balance": 0.228597,
      "dry_up": 0.653956,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.043576,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.210517,
      "from_high_reference": -0.094614,
      "from_low_reference": 0.22637
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 7.957867,
      "fair_value_reference": 8.962912,
      "structural_low": 7.046,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.039957,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 0.018993,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.153334,
        "worst_return": -0.270676,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.059418,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.087714,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.227294,
        "worst_return": -0.157425,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.091831,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.230715,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.382122,
        "worst_return": -0.2853,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.134426,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.222924,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.093396,
        "worst_return": -0.175456,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-08-04",
        "end": "2023-10-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.026652,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-10-20",
        "end": "2023-10-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2023-11-03",
        "end": "2023-12-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.008313,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-12-15",
        "end": "2024-01-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.046893,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-03-08",
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        "return": 0.091522,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2024-04-05",
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        "return": -0.071452,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.040938,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "return": -0.056186,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-06-14",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.100108,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.045663,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "activity_lines": [
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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        "energy": 23.387902,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "trend": 7.807633,
        "fair_value": 9.049777,
        "relative_strength": -13.434911,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "energy": 19.650914,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 4347,
        "typical_volume": 4181.6,
        "trend": 7.8369,
        "fair_value": 9.034078,
        "relative_strength": -8.433839,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 18.552604,
        "energy": 13.81608,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 8.105,
        "volume": 4977,
        "typical_volume": 4377.05,
        "trend": 7.859367,
        "fair_value": 9.014995,
        "relative_strength": -8.974237,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.069065,
        "energy": 13.122898,
        "activity_lines": [
          8.094867,
          8.085582,
          8.207229,
          8.062329
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 8.277,
        "volume": 3766,
        "typical_volume": 4526.1,
        "trend": 7.887567,
        "fair_value": 8.99695,
        "relative_strength": -6.512442,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.609748,
        "energy": 18.460515,
        "activity_lines": [
          8.163333,
          8.107982,
          8.222233,
          8.089273
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 8.343,
        "volume": 17,
        "typical_volume": 4394.25,
        "trend": 7.9211,
        "fair_value": 8.979239,
        "relative_strength": -6.059523,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.718293,
        "energy": 27.46747,
        "activity_lines": [
          8.245133,
          8.148855,
          8.237895,
          8.118656
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 8.641,
        "volume": 1773,
        "typical_volume": 4026.65,
        "trend": 7.957867,
        "fair_value": 8.962912,
        "relative_strength": -5.202681,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.572415,
        "energy": 45.790944,
        "activity_lines": [
          8.395133,
          8.245473,
          8.276886,
          8.165101
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}